IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eujhet/v23y2016i6p946-970.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Secular stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy

Author

Listed:
  • Roger E. Backhouse
  • Mauro Boianovsky

Abstract

The paper presents a history of the concept of “secular stagnation”, from Alvin Hansen in the 1930s and 1940s to its recent revival by Larry Summers. We examine Hansen's ideas and those of young economists associated with him, notably Evsey Domar, Everett Hagen, Benjamin Higgins, Alan Sweezy, and Paul Samuelson, who were the economists who kept the doctrine alive in the 1950s and to whom Summers and others taking up the idea recently turned. Their ideas are contrasted with the theories of stagnation associated with Josef Steindl and Joseph Schumpeter. It is a label for a historical thesis about the American economy, which, initially seen as distinct from Keynes General Theory, came to be seen as a theoretical proposition based on Keynesian theory. It is argued that the idea of secular stagnation had a political dimension, connected to the New Deal and the Cold War and changing conceptions of economic maturity.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E. Backhouse & Mauro Boianovsky, 2016. "Secular stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 946-970, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eujhet:v:23:y:2016:i:6:p:946-970
    DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2016.1192842
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09672567.2016.1192842
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09672567.2016.1192842?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rostow, W. W., 1998. "The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116915.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fèvre, Raphaël, 2021. "The Madman and the Economist(s): Georges Bataille and François Perroux as French Critiques of the Marshall Plan," OSF Preprints 6hnvk, Center for Open Science.
    2. Davide Gualerzi, 2020. "Secular Stagnation Revisited," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 55-79, June.
    3. Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. Assous, Michaël & Boianovsky, Mauro & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2024. "Samuelson's last macroeconomic model: Secular stagnation and endogenous cyclical growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 417-426.
    6. Michalis Nikiforos, 2020. "Demand, Distribution, Productivity, Structural Change, and (Secular?) Stagnation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_945, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2019. "A critical analysis of the secular stagnation theory," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0245, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    8. Knolle, Julia, 2020. "Prosperity in a Low Interest Environment," MPRA Paper 104332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "Could an economy get stuck in a rational pessimism bubble? The case of Japan," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    10. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    11. Fèvre, Raphaël, 2019. "Georges Bataille, François Perroux and French Critiques of the Marshall Plan," OSF Preprints acb6z, Center for Open Science.
    12. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2024. "Secular stagnation: Is immigration part of the solution?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1426-1449, March.
    13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    15. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    16. Gilles Dufrenot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," AMSE Working Papers 1818, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    17. Thies Clifford F., 2021. "Expectations of a Post-Wwii Depression," Studia Historiae Oeconomicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 145-162, December.
    18. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    19. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Li, Huijuan & Wang, Fei, 2013. "Selecting alternative industries for Chinese resource cities based on intra- and inter-regional comparative advantages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 82-88.
    2. Assous, Michaël & Boianovsky, Mauro & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2024. "Samuelson's last macroeconomic model: Secular stagnation and endogenous cyclical growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 417-426.
    3. Macunovich, Diane J., 2009. "The Role of Demographics in Precipitating Crises in Financial Institutions," IZA Discussion Papers 4436, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Michela C. Pellicani & Valeria Moro, 2013. "Age Structure Evolution In Some Sub-Saharan Countries: The Advantage Of Ageing," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(3-4), pages 207-214, July-Dece.
    5. Diane J. Macunovich, 2000. "Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(2), pages 235-261, June.
    6. Sieds, 2013. "Complete Volume LXVII n.3-4 2013," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(3-4), pages 1-244, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eujhet:v:23:y:2016:i:6:p:946-970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJH20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.