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A Post-Keynesian Age Model To Forecast Energy Demand In Spain

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  • �scar Deju�n
  • Luis Antonio L�pez
  • Mar�a �ngeles Tobarra
  • Jorge Zafrilla

Abstract

This paper develops an extended input-output model for the estimation of energy demand and related issues. It is built on the last Spanish Symmetric Input-Output Table (IOT, 2005). It has been tested for the period 2005-2008 and used for forecasting energy demand for the years 2009-2012 under different economic scenarios. The model shares some traits of the computable and applied general equilibrium models where quantity and price systems are interwoven. The differences lie in the theories explaining output and prices. Our quantity system is based on Keynes' principle of effective demand (broad energy multipliers are derived). The price system is based on the classical (Sraffian) theory of prices of production, akin to post-Keynesian full-cost prices. The general price system can be manipulated to account for the specificities of energy prices. Historical trends of energy coefficients are computed by extrapolation of past IOTs and calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • �scar Deju�n & Luis Antonio L�pez & Mar�a �ngeles Tobarra & Jorge Zafrilla, 2013. "A Post-Keynesian Age Model To Forecast Energy Demand In Spain," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 321-340, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:25:y:2013:i:3:p:321-340
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2013.806294
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    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar & Maksumov, Rashid, 2010. "Critical analysis of Chapter 23 of Keynes’s Notes on Mercantilism in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936)," EconStor Research Reports 155318, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Dejuan, 2015. "Forecasting energy demand through a dynamic input-output model," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 108-115.
    2. Biao Huang, 2018. "An exhaustible resources model in a dynamic input–output framework: a possible reconciliation between Ricardo and Hotelling," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    3. Minglu Ma & Min Su & Shuyu Li & Feng Jiang & Rongrong Li, 2018. "Predicting Coal Consumption in South Africa Based on Linear (Metabolic Grey Model), Nonlinear (Non-Linear Grey Model), and Combined (Metabolic Grey Model-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.

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