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Modelling Greek-Turkish Rivalry: An Empirical Investigation of Defence Spending Dynamics

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Listed:
  • George M. Georgiou

    (Central Bank of Cyprus, Nicosia)

  • Panayotis T. Kapopoulos

    (Economic Research Division, Alpha Credit Bank, Athens)

  • Sophia Lazaretou

    (Department of International and European Economic and Political Studies, University of Macedonia)

Abstract

Three models are used to test the widely held view that there is military rivalry between Greece and Turkey. The modelling is based on the work of McGuire (1977), Desai & Blake (1981) and a vector autoregression specification. Particular attention is paid to appropriate diagnostic tests, the long-run values and Granger causality. Empirical findings provide little corroboration of the view that there is an arms race between Greece and Turkey. Such results should not be entirely surprising. Rivalry can take many other forms, such as periodic exchanges of bellicose rhetoric; economic, political and diplomatic manoeuvering; lobbying within existing alliances; political, historical and cultural propaganda. Given that the statistical evidence provides little support for the view that there is an arms race between Greece and Turkey, there are possibly other explanations for their military expenditures. Therefore, on the empirical side, the most important issue for future research of the determinants of military expenditures in both countries would be the consideration of models that incorporate the impact of various strategic, political and economic factors which may be important determinants of defence spending.

Suggested Citation

  • George M. Georgiou & Panayotis T. Kapopoulos & Sophia Lazaretou, 1996. "Modelling Greek-Turkish Rivalry: An Empirical Investigation of Defence Spending Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 33(2), pages 229-239, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:33:y:1996:i:2:p:229-239
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    Cited by:

    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2003. "Domestic political and external security determinants of the demand for greek military expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 437-445.
    2. Jurgen Brauer, 2002. "Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What Have We Learned?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 85-107.
    3. J Paul Dunne, Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2005. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Bismillah & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, 2022. "Trade Liberalization And Fiscal Stance In Selected Developing Countries: A Granger Causality Approach In Var Framework," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 134-159, June.
    5. Arzoo Mushtaq & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Hanif Akhtar, 2022. "Nonlinear Taylor Rule And Inflation-Targeting In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 185-197, June.
    6. repec:lje:journl:v:20:y:2015:i:2:p:35-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 140-174, November.
    8. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.
    9. Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ & Burak ŞAHİNGÖZ, 2020. "Arms Race Between Turkey and Greece: Time-Varying Causality Analysis Abstract: An arms race is the dynamic process followed by states in the acquisition of weapons. An arms race requires mutual milita," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    10. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 2000. "A note on the causal relationship between defence spending and growth in Greece: 1955-93," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 173-184.
    11. Dritsakis, N., 2004. "Defense spending and economic growth: an empirical investigation for Greece and Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 249-264, February.
    12. Karamanis, Dimitrios & Kechrinioti, Alexandra, 2023. "The Greek-Turkish rivalry: A Bayesian VAR approach," MPRA Paper 116827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hasan Sahin & Onur Ozsoy, 2008. "Arms Race Between Greece And Turkey: A Markov Switching Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 209-216.
    14. Mary Michail & Nicholas Papasyriopoulos, 2012. "Investigation of the Greek – Turkish Military Spending Relation," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 259-270, August.

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