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Globalization, Economic Shocks, And Internal Armed Conflict

Author

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  • Ibrahim Elbadawi
  • Håvard Hegre

Abstract

Critics of trade liberalization argue that globalization increases countries' vulnerability to economic shocks and hence may exacerbate domestic social conflict. Such social conflict may also be transformed into armed conflict. Others argue that globalization promotes economic growth and reduces poverty, which leads to a reduction in the risk of internal conflict. Several studies find trade to reduce the risk of interstate conflict. This article investigates the impact of trade and trade shocks on the risk of intrastate conflict. A set of operationalizations of economic shock is developed and used to analyze the risk of conflicts that involve at least 25 battle deaths per year. The analysis finds no robust evidence for a direct relationship between trade openness, trade shocks, and the risk of armed conflict. There is somewhat more basis for concluding that globalization affects the risk indirectly through its effect on long- and short-term growth. In the long run, trade-induced growth reduces the risk of domestic conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim Elbadawi & Håvard Hegre, 2008. "Globalization, Economic Shocks, And Internal Armed Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 37-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:37-60
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690701365160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Natural openness and good government," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2411, The World Bank.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arghya Ghosh & Peter E. Robertson & Marie-Claire Robitaille, 2016. "Does Globalisation Affect Crime? Theory and Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1482-1513, October.
    2. Erik Gartzke & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "Prosperous pacifists: The effects of development on initiators and targets of territorial conflict," IEW - Working Papers 500, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    3. Erik Gartzke & Dominic Rohner, 2010. "To conquer or compel: war, peace, and economic development," IEW - Working Papers 511, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Verdier, Thierry, 2010. "Ouverture, conflits et capacité étatique : une perspective d’économie politique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(4), pages 415-449, décembre.
    5. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2017. "The Globalization and Peace Nexus: Findings Using Two Composite Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 871-885, April.
    6. Arghya Ghosh & Peter Robertson, 2012. "Trade and expropriation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(1), pages 169-191, May.
    7. Trude Midtgaard & Krishna Vadlamannati & Indra Soysa, 2014. "Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-124, March.
    8. Mengmeng Hao & Fangyu Ding & Xiaolan Xie & Jingying Fu & Yushu Qian & Tobias Ide & Jean-François Maystadt & Shuai Chen & Quansheng Ge & Dong Jiang, 2022. "Varying climatic-social-geographical patterns shape the conflict risk at regional and global scales," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.

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