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Consequences of Climate Policy for International Tourist Arrivals in Developing Countries

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  • Stefan Gössling
  • Paul Peeters
  • Daniel Scott

Abstract

One of the major implications of climate change for tourism destinations is the potential impact that mitigation policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the rapidly growing aviation sector could have on travel costs and tourist mobility. Such impact is particularly salient for long-haul destinations. Recently tourism organisations such as the unwto have also expressed concern that aviation sector-focused mitigation policies in wealthy nations that are the major international tourism outbound markets will negatively affect tourism development and wealth transfers to tourism-dependent developing nations. This article reviews emerging climate policies in major tourism outbound markets that have direct implications for the aviation sector and examines the potential consequences for travel costs and tourism demand in 10 tourism-dependent less developed island states with diverse geographic and tourism market characteristics. The analysis confirms that aviation mitigation policies would affect tourism demand to these nations. ‘Carbon smart’ tourism market restructuring approaches to reduce the emissions intensity of tourism, and market risk to climate policy changes anticipated over the next 10–20 years, are subsequently discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gössling & Paul Peeters & Daniel Scott, 2008. "Consequences of Climate Policy for International Tourist Arrivals in Developing Countries," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 873-901.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ctwqxx:v:29:y:2008:i:5:p:873-901
    DOI: 10.1080/01436590802106007
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    Cited by:

    1. Seufert, Juergen Heinz & Arjomandi, Amir & Dakpo, K. Hervé, 2017. "Evaluating airline operational performance: A Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen productivity indicator," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 52-68.
    2. repec:tho:iscthi:confpap4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hall, Derek, 2010. "Transport geography and new European realities: a critique," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Shaun Vorster & Marius Ungerer & Jako Volschenk, 2012. "2050 Scenarios for Long-Haul Tourism in the Evolving Global Climate Change Regime," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-51, December.
    5. Germán Caruso & Inés Marcos & Ilan Noy, 2024. "Climate Changes Affect Human Capital," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 157-196, March.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1484-1498, September.
    7. Ivan Paunović & Miodrag Radojevic, 2014. "Towards green economy: balancing market and seasonality of demand indicators in Serbian mountain tourism product development," Tourism and Hospitality Industry confpap04, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
    8. Luo, Fen & Becken, Susanne & Zhong, Yongde, 2018. "Changing travel patterns in China and ‘carbon footprint’ implications for a domestic tourist destination," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Dolnicar, Sara & Laesser, Christian & Matus, Katrina, 2010. "Short-haul city travel is truly environmentally sustainable," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 505-512.
    10. Pentelow, Laurel & Scott, Daniel J., 2011. "Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 199-205.
    11. Mohamed Shumais & Ibrahim Mohamed, 2020. "What makes an environmental trust fund successful? A case study of the Maldives," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 327-344, July.
    12. Cohen, Maurie J., 2010. "Destination unknown: Pursuing sustainable mobility in the face of rival societal aspirations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 459-470, May.
    13. Higham, James E.S. & Cohen, Scott A., 2011. "Canary in the coalmine: Norwegian attitudes towards climate change and extreme long-haul air travel to Aotearoa/New Zealand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-105.
    14. Christian M Rogerson, 2016. "Climate change, tourism and local economic development in South Africa," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 31(1-2), pages 322-331, February.
    15. Arjomandi, Amir & Seufert, Juergen Heinz, 2014. "An evaluation of the world's major airlines' technical and environmental performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 133-144.
    16. Marinus C. GISOLF, 2015. "Tourists' Roles In A Sustainable Development: Polluters, Mitigators And Believers," Revista de turism - studii si cercetari in turism / Journal of tourism - studies and research in tourism, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 20(20), pages 1-5, December.
    17. Horng, Jeou-Shyan & Hu, Meng-Lei (Monica) & Teng, Chih-Ching (Chris) & Hsiao, Han-Liang & Liu, Chih-Hsing (Sam), 2013. "Development and validation of the low-carbon literacy scale among practitioners in the Taiwanese tourism industry," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 255-262.
    18. Peeters, Paul M. & Eijgelaar, Eke, 2014. "Tourism's climate mitigation dilemma: Flying between rich and poor countries," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 15-26.
    19. Gössling, Stefan & Scott, Daniel & Hall, C. Michael, 2015. "Inter-market variability in CO2 emission-intensities in tourism: Implications for destination marketing and carbon management," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 203-212.
    20. Paul Peeters & Martin Landré, 2011. "The Emerging Global Tourism Geography—An Environmental Sustainability Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.

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