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Real option application in PPP/PFI project negotiation

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  • Jicai Liu
  • Charles Cheah

Abstract

Over the past two decades, many developing countries have grown to become more familiar with the notions and the use of public-private partnership/private financing initiative (PPP/PFI) schemes in building large-scale infrastructure assets. However, owing to higher levels of complexity and longer contractual durations, PPP/PFI projects are often embedded with higher risks. On the one hand, any private sector concessionaire would strive to secure some forms of subsidies or guarantees from the host government to alleviate its risk concerns. On the other hand, the host government would also attempt to counterbalance the grant of these incentives by introducing additional 'repayment' obligations, such as placement of a cap on the tariff or toll rates. Modelled as real options, support and repayment features found in the case of a wastewater treatment plant in Southern China are evaluated using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and spreadsheet-based cash flow models. The objective is to illustrate how a negotiation band incorporating these option values can be constructed, which would enlarge the feasible bargaining range for both parties. The risk implications of two disparate bidding scenarios found in the case will also be discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jicai Liu & Charles Cheah, 2009. "Real option application in PPP/PFI project negotiation," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 331-342.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:27:y:2009:i:4:p:331-342
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190902807071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klein, Michael, 1997. "Managing guarantee programs in support of infrastructure investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1812, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "A Two-Factor Uncertainty Model to Determine the Optimal Contractual Penalty for a Build-Own-Transfer Project," CEF.UP Working Papers 1308, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Abraham Park & Chen Yu Chang, 2013. "Impacts of Construction Events on the Project Equity Value of the Channel Tunnel Project," ERES eres2013_97, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, September.
    4. Carlos Contreras & Julio Angulo, 2017. "Valuing Governmental Support in Road PPPs," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 223(4), pages 37-66, December.
    5. Wang, Yinglin & Gao, Huaizhu Oliver & Liu, Jicai, 2019. "Incentive game of investor speculation in PPP highway projects based on the government minimum revenue guarantee," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 20-34.
    6. Libiao Bai & Yi Li & Qiang Du & Yadan Xu, 2017. "A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Guang-Xin Gao, 2018. "Sustainable Winner Determination for Public-Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects in Multi-Attribute Reverse Auctions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Lee, Hyounkyu & Park, Taeil & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2013. "A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 360-368.

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