IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v51y2019i30p3293-3309.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Moving to autarky, trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Fabien Candau
  • Geoffroy Guepie
  • Julie Schlick

Abstract

This article analyses the effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral trade in Africa. A structural gravity equation is estimated over the period 1955–2014. The overall effect of RTAs on African trade is strong, but depending on the nature of the RTAs, there is a decreasing impact over time. While Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) still favour trade in Africa, there was no trade creation coming from Free Trade Agreements between 1990 and 2014. However, the provisions of RTAs do not have a negative impact on trade: agreements that include behind-the-border policies do not significantly deter bilateral trade. To explain the declining impact of RTAs, we look at their redistributive impact between members states. There is no evidence that large countries disproportionally export diversified goods due to RTAs (no ‘home effect’). Countries with a good international network (‘hub effect’) benefited more than other countries of RTAs between 1955 and 1990 but this is however less true on the most recent period (1990–2014).

Suggested Citation

  • Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Julie Schlick, 2019. "Moving to autarky, trade creation and home market effect: an exhaustive analysis of regional trade agreements in Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(30), pages 3293-3309, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:30:p:3293-3309
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1566691
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2019.1566691
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2019.1566691?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market access in global and regional trade," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1037-1052.
    2. Kristian Behrens & Carl Gaigné & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Jacques-François Thisse, 2006. "Is remoteness a locational disadvantage?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 347-368, June.
    3. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2010. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta‐Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 63-80, February.
    4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    5. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David & Martimort, David, 2014. "Two-tier asymmetric information as a motive for trade, trade policies, and inefficient trade agreements:," IFPRI discussion papers 1383, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," NBER Working Papers 6562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fabien Candau & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "What Are EU Trade Preferences Worth for Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries?," Working Papers 2005-19, CEPII research center.
    8. Magee, Christopher S.P., 2008. "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 349-362, July.
    9. Jaime DE MELO & Yvonne TSIKATA, 2014. "Regional integration in Africa: Challenges and prospects," Working Papers P93, FERDI.
    10. Puga, Diego & Venables, Anthony J., 1997. "Preferential trading arrangements and industrial location," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-368, November.
    11. Bernard Hoekman & Dominique Njinkeu, 2017. "Integrating Africa: Some Trade Policy Research Priorities and Challenges†," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(suppl_2), pages 12-39.
    12. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    13. Robert Dekle & Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2008. "Global Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 511-540, July.
    14. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 335-376, October.
    15. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 73-90, Spring.
    16. Tristan Kohl & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2016. "Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 97-131, January.
    17. Michel Fouquin & Jules Hugot, 2016. "Two Centuries of Bilateral Trade and Gravity data: 1827-2014," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-39, August.
    18. Bernard Hoekman & Dominique Njinkeu, 2017. "Integrating Africa: Some Trade Policy Research Priorities and Challenges," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/43, European University Institute.
    19. Monga, Celestin & Lin, Justin Yifu (ed.), 2015. "The Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics: Volume 2: Policies and Practices," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199687107.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Geoffroy Guepie & Julie Schlick, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working Papers hal-02625875, HAL.
    2. Borsky, Stefan & Leiter, Andrea Maria, 2022. "International trade in rough diamonds and the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    4. Pooja Thakur-Wernz & Helena Barnard & Marianne Matthee, 2024. "Knightian uncertain violence and the challenge of FDI-assisted development: policy recommendations where civilian lives are at risk," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(3), pages 356-390, September.
    5. Johnson, Michael E. & Farris, Jarrad & Morgan, Stephen & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Ajewole, Kayode & Beckman, Jayson, 2022. "Africa's Agricultural Trade: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area," USDA Miscellaneous 333528, United States Department of Agriculture.
    6. Julie SCHLICK & Geoffroy GUEPIE, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working Papers 2019-2020_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2019.
    7. Fabien Candau, 2019. "Marginalisation commerciale de l'Afrique," Post-Print hal-02306417, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    2. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    3. Julie SCHLICK & Geoffroy GUEPIE, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working Papers 2019-2020_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2019.
    4. Geoffroy Guepie & Julie Schlick, 2019. "Gains and Losses in a Trade Bloc: The Case of the East African Community," Working Papers hal-02625875, HAL.
    5. Dutt, Pushan, 2020. "The WTO is not passé," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    7. Julian Hinz, 2023. "The ties that bind: geopolitical motivations for economic integration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 51-100, February.
    8. Johnson, Michael E. & Farris, Jarrad & Morgan, Stephen & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Ajewole, Kayode & Beckman, Jayson, 2022. "Africa's Agricultural Trade: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area," USDA Miscellaneous 333528, United States Department of Agriculture.
    9. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    10. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    11. Salamat Ali & Chris Milner, 2022. "Trade costs and the composition of developing countries' exports," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 1971-1996, November.
    12. Elisa Borghi & Rodolfo Helg & Lucia Tajoli, 2014. "Trade effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," LIUC Papers in Economics 279, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    13. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    15. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.
    16. Cerqua, Augusto & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Temerbulatova, Zhansaya, 2024. "A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    17. Koffi Dumor & Yao Li & Ma Yongkai & Enock Mintah Ampaw & Hafez Komla Dumor, 2022. "Evaluating the belt and road initiative effects on trade and migration: Evidence from the East African community," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 16-28, March.
    18. Timini, Jacopo & Viani, Francesca, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 291-308.
    19. Woori Lee, 2017. "Services liberalization and GVC participation: New evidence for heterogeneous effects by income level and provisions," CTEI Working Papers series 08-2017, Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute.
    20. William W. Olney, 2022. "Intra-African trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 25-51, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:30:p:3293-3309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.