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The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans

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  • Kejo Starosta
  • Sonia Budz
  • Michael Krutwig

Abstract

This empirical study analyzes the relationship between the sentiments in online media with regard to travel destinations and corresponding tourist arrivals. We expect the media reports on political and economic instability and turmoil to enhance tourist arrival nowcasts and forecasts, as they can probably complement them with information on disruptions and shocks. Therefore, we believe this research will help to build better models for tourism demand nowcasting and forecasting. We use the sentiment in the German-speaking online media because the German-speaking region is the most populated in Europe and has the largest group of travelers visiting destinations in and around Europe.An artificial neural network is used to analyze the mood of the media. The software classifies news items regarding potential tourist destinations with either positive or negative labels. The number of positive and negative news items is used to build sentiment indices for popular tourist destinations for Europeans.Our results show strong correlations between the mood concerning tourist destinations and tourist arrivals in these countries. Indeed, disruptions and shocks prevalent in the news are reflected in similar ratios in both tourist arrivals and sentiment indices. These results can be used as a new explanatory variable for tourism demand modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Kejo Starosta & Sonia Budz & Michael Krutwig, 2019. "The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(14), pages 1558-1573, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:14:p:1558-1573
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1527463
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    Cited by:

    1. Manosso, Franciele Cristina & Domareski Ruiz, Thays Cristina, 2021. "Using sentiment analysis in tourism research: A systematic, bibliometric, and integrative review," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 16-27.
    2. Doris Chenguang Wu & Shiteng Zhong & Richard T R Qiu & Ji Wu, 2022. "Are customer reviews just reviews? Hotel forecasting using sentiment analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 795-816, May.
    3. Shesen Guo & Ganzhou Zhang, 2020. "Using Machine Learning for Analyzing Sentiment Orientations Toward Eight Countries," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, August.
    4. Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024. "Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1199-1233, September.
    5. Cristina Franciele & Thays Christina Domareski Ruiz, 2021. "Using sentiment analysis in tourism research: A systematic, bibliometric, and integrative review," Post-Print hal-03373984, HAL.
    6. Li, Hengyun & Gao, Huicai & Song, Haiyan, 2023. "Tourism forecasting with granular sentiment analysis," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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