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Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country

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  • Carla Fernandes
  • Paulo M. Gama
  • Elisabete Vieira

Abstract

Does sentiment impact the sovereign debt markets? This article investigates whether lagged domestic and Euro area irrational sentiment (optimism or pessimism unwarranted by fundamentals) predicts future sovereign bond spreads, in Portugal, between January 2000 and December 2013. We find that domestic and Euro area sentiment negatively forecasts total return spreads and that this effect is stronger during the bailout period. Also, we find that the business sentiment is even most noticed. Therefore, Portuguese sovereign debt market is prone to the influence of investors' sentiment.

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  • Carla Fernandes & Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete Vieira, 2016. "Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 816-834, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:9:p:816-834
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1088142
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