IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hur/ijaraf/v4y2014i2p19-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Dragos Stefan Oprea
  • Laura Brad

Abstract

The attitude of individual investors is strongly correlated with their sentiment, so their behavior on the stock market can generate important changes in price fluctuations. The aim of our study was to provide evidence regarding the relationship between the evolution of stock market and the individual investor sentiment, proxy by the consumer confidence index. This study is conducted on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) for a 10 year time period, starting from 2002 to 2011 and includes 120 observations. The results proved that there is a positive correlation between changes in consumer confidence and stock market returns, demonstrating that individual investor sentiment affects stock prices. However, the influence of individual investor sentiment seems to be quickly removed by the force of arbitrage. The price adjustments are realized in less than a month. Moreover, the influence of individual investor sentiment on the prices of the most 10 liquid companies from BSE is not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Dragos Stefan Oprea & Laura Brad, 2014. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 19-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:4:y:2014:i:2:p:19-25
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hrmars.com/hrmars_papers/Article_03_Investor_Sentiment_and_Stock_Returns1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://hrmars.com/hrmars_papers/Article_03_Investor_Sentiment_and_Stock_Returns1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    2. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    3. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    5. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    6. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    7. Wang, Yaw-Huei & Keswani, Aneel & Taylor, Stephen J., 2006. "The relationships between sentiment, returns and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-123.
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    9. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    10. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    11. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    14. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    15. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    17. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    18. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Priti Dubey & Rishika Shankar, 2020. "Determinants of the Commodity Futures Market Performance: An Indian Perspective," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 21(2), pages 239-257, September.
    2. Ani Stoitsova-Stoykova, 2017. "Relationship Between Public Expectations and Financial Market Dynamics in South- East Europe Capital Markets," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 237-250, June.
    3. Jing Shi & Marcel Ausloos & Tingting Zhu, 2022. "If global or local investor sentiments are prone to developing an impact on stock returns, is there an industry effect?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1309-1320, January.
    4. Elena Valentina Tilica, 2014. "The Month-of-the-Year Effect in Post-Communist East European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(1), pages 029-040, June.
    5. ALAJEKWU, Udoka Bernard & OBIALOR, Michael Chukwumee & OKORO, Cyprian Okey, 2017. "Ffect Of Investor Sentiment On Future Returns In The Nigerian Stock Market," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 17(2), pages 103-126.
    6. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "Does Investor Sentiment Matter in Post-Communist East European Stock Markets?," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(8), pages 356-366, August.
    7. Radu Ciobanu & Mircea Bahna, 2015. "The Social, Cultural and Political Factors that Influence the Level of Mergers and Acquisitions," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 33-41, July.
    8. Ngoc Bao Vuong, Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns?The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67, pages 157-175, July.
    9. Nizar Raissi & Sahbi Missaoui, 2015. "Role of investor sentiment in financial markets: an explanation by behavioural finance approach," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 362-401.
    10. Victor Dragota & Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "Informational Efficiency Tests on the Romanian Stock Market: A Review of the Literature," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(1), pages 015-028, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hur:ijaraf:v:4:y:2014:i:2:p:23-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "Does Investor Sentiment Matter in Post-Communist East European Stock Markets?," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(8), pages 356-366, August.
    3. Sayim, Mustafa & Rahman, Hamid, 2015. "An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Stefan Abrantes Costa & Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis & Antonio Pedro Soares Pinto, 2020. "Subjective/ Behavioural Factors Influence the PSI 20 and IBEX 35," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 13-27, October.
    5. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    6. Carla Fernandes & Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete Vieira, 2016. "Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 816-834, February.
    7. Yang, Yan & Copeland, Laurence, 2014. "The Effects of Sentiment on Market Return and Volatility and The Cross-Sectional Risk Premium of Sentiment-affected Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    11. Wenjie Ding & Khelifa Mazouz & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: new theory and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 493-525, August.
    12. Mariano González-Sánchez & M. Encina Morales de Vega, 2021. "Influence of Bloomberg’s Investor Sentiment Index: Evidence from European Union Financial Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, February.
    13. Kim Kaivanto & Peng Zhang, 2019. "Investor Sentiment as a Predictor of Market Returns," Working Papers 268005798, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    14. ALAJEKWU, Udoka Bernard & OBIALOR, Michael Chukwumee & OKORO, Cyprian Okey, 2017. "Ffect Of Investor Sentiment On Future Returns In The Nigerian Stock Market," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 17(2), pages 103-126.
    15. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    16. Nizar Raissi & Sahbi Missaoui, 2015. "Role of investor sentiment in financial markets: an explanation by behavioural finance approach," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 362-401.
    17. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    18. Ahmed Salhin & Mo Sherif & Edward Jones, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Sector Returns," CFI Discussion Papers 1602, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.
    19. Salhin, Ahmed & Sherif, Mohamed & Jones, Edward, 2016. "Managerial sentiment, consumer confidence and sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 24-38.
    20. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hur:ijaraf:v:4:y:2014:i:2:p:19-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hassan Danial Aslam (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://hrmars.com/index.php/pages/detail/Accounting-Finance-Journal .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.