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Full versus quasi MLE for ARMA-GARCH models with infinitely divisible innovations

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  • Jimmie Goode
  • Kim
  • Fabozzi

Abstract

We compare the backtesting performance of ARMA-GARCH models with the most common types of infinitely divisible innovations, fit with both full maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and quasi maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE). The innovation types considered are the Gaussian, Student's t , α -stable, classical tempered stable (CTS), normal tempered stable (NTS) and generalized hyperbolic (GH) distributions. In calm periods of decreasing volatility, MLE and QMLE produce near identical performance in forecasting value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). In more volatile periods, QMLE can actually produce superior performance for CTS, NTS and α -stable innovations. While the t -ARMA-GARCH model has the fewest number of VaR violations, rejections by the Kupeic and Berkowitz tests suggest excessively large forecasted losses. The α -stable, CTS and NTS innovations compare favourably, with the latter two also allowing for option pricing under a single market model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmie Goode & Kim & Fabozzi, 2015. "Full versus quasi MLE for ARMA-GARCH models with infinitely divisible innovations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(48), pages 5147-5158, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:48:p:5147-5158
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1042203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2014. "Are the log-returns of Italian open-end mutual funds normally distributed? A risk assessment perspective," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 957, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Leonardo Bianchi & Giovanni De Luca & Giorgia Rivieccio, 2020. "CoVaR with volatility clustering, heavy tails and non-linear dependence," Papers 2009.10764, arXiv.org.
    2. Gong, Xiao-Li & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Multi-objective portfolio optimization under tempered stable Lévy distribution with Copula dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Gong, Xiaoli & Zhuang, Xintian, 2017. "Measuring financial risk and portfolio reversion with time changed tempered stable Lévy processes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 148-159.
    4. Hasan A. Fallahgoul & David Veredas & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2019. "Quantile-Based Inference for Tempered Stable Distributions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 51-83, January.
    5. Tiantian Li & Young Shin Kim & Qi Fan & Fumin Zhu, 2021. "Aumann–Serrano index of risk in portfolio optimization," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 94(2), pages 197-217, October.
    6. Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & De Luca, Giovanni & Rivieccio, Giorgia, 2023. "Non-Gaussian models for CoVaR estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 391-404.

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