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Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries

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  • Gyan Pradhan
  • Zeljan Schuster
  • Kamal Upadhyaya

Abstract

The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on aggregate private investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand is examined using time series data from 1972-2000. Since the use of non-stationary time series data may produce spurious results, the data series are tested for stationarity using the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests. After establishing the stationarity of the data series, cointegration tests are performed. The cointegration test results reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Therefore, an error correction model is developed and estimated. The estimated results point to an inconclusive empirical relationship between real exchange rate volatility and aggregate private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gyan Pradhan & Zeljan Schuster & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2004. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2161-2165.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:19:p:2161-2165
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000282498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Pelin Öge Güney, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Relationship for Turkey," Working Papers 1332, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    3. Rabindra Bhandari & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2010. "Panel data evidence of the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in South-east Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 57-61.
    4. Chien-Chung Nieh & Jeng-Bau Lin & Yu-shan Wang, 2008. "Exchange rate uncertainty and corporate values: evidence from Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1181-1192.
    5. Jer-Shiou Chiou & Pei-Shan Wu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Variation of interest-rate parity and its asymmetry on stock return in a jump-diffusion process," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1309-1316.
    6. Bianca Clausen, 2008. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Threshold Effects, and Aggregate Investment – Evidence from Latin American Countries," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2008, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
    7. Neville Francis & Sergio Restrepo-Angel, 2018. "Sectoral and aggregate response to oil price shocks in the Colombian economy: SVAR and Local Projections approach," Borradores de Economia 1055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Huang, Bor-Yi & Chiou, Jer-Shiou & Wu, Pei-Shan, 2007. "Abnormal profitability and foreign investment based on the investigation of covered interest parity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 475-484.
    9. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.
    10. Parjiono & A.B.M. Rabiul Alam Beg & Richard Monypenny, 2013. "The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2389-2400, June.

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