IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v36y2004i19p2161-2165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Gyan Pradhan
  • Zeljan Schuster
  • Kamal Upadhyaya

Abstract

The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on aggregate private investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand is examined using time series data from 1972-2000. Since the use of non-stationary time series data may produce spurious results, the data series are tested for stationarity using the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests. After establishing the stationarity of the data series, cointegration tests are performed. The cointegration test results reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Therefore, an error correction model is developed and estimated. The estimated results point to an inconclusive empirical relationship between real exchange rate volatility and aggregate private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gyan Pradhan & Zeljan Schuster & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2004. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the level of investment in selected South-east Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2161-2165.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:19:p:2161-2165
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000282498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0003684042000282498
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0003684042000282498?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages 55-67, March.
    2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    5. Kwanho Shin & Jaewoo Lee, 2000. "The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship between Investment and Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 667-680, June.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pelin Öge Güney, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Relationship for Turkey," Working Papers 1332, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    2. Rabindra Bhandari & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2010. "Panel data evidence of the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on private investment in South-east Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 57-61.
    3. Chien-Chung Nieh & Jeng-Bau Lin & Yu-shan Wang, 2008. "Exchange rate uncertainty and corporate values: evidence from Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1181-1192.
    4. Jer-Shiou Chiou & Pei-Shan Wu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Variation of interest-rate parity and its asymmetry on stock return in a jump-diffusion process," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1309-1316.
    5. Bianca Clausen, 2008. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Threshold Effects, and Aggregate Investment – Evidence from Latin American Countries," IWP Discussion Paper Series 02/2008, Institute for Economic Policy, Cologne, Germany.
    6. Neville Francis & Sergio Restrepo-Angel, 2018. "Sectoral and aggregate response to oil price shocks in the Colombian economy: SVAR and Local Projections approach," Borradores de Economia 1055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Huang, Bor-Yi & Chiou, Jer-Shiou & Wu, Pei-Shan, 2007. "Abnormal profitability and foreign investment based on the investigation of covered interest parity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 475-484.
    8. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.
    9. Parjiono & A.B.M. Rabiul Alam Beg & Richard Monypenny, 2013. "The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2389-2400, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and domestic investment in G7: are the effects asymmetric?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 775-799, August.
    3. Serven, Luis, 2002. "Real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2823, The World Bank.
    4. Li, Guangzhong & Li, Jie & Wu, Yangru, 2019. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm-level investment: Finding the Hartman–Abel effect," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 441-457.
    5. Nicholas Taylor, 1998. "Precious metals and inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 201-210.
    6. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    7. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    8. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    9. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    10. Banu Demirhan, 2016. "Financial Development and Investment Amount Nexus: A Case Study of Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 127-134, March.
    11. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2004. "Structural change in exports and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis for Spain (1961-2000)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 473-477.
    12. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén & Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo, 2005. "O Mecanismo De Transmissão Da Taxa De Câmbio Para Índices De Preços: Uma Análise Vecm Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 034, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    15. Adamopoulos Antonios, 2010. "Credit Market Development and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Ireland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 3-18.
    16. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    17. Paqué, Karl-Heinz, 1991. "Structural wage rigidity in West Germany 1950-1989: Some new econometric evidence," Kiel Working Papers 489, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Mitch Kunce, 2022. "The Tenuous Ecological Divorce and Unemployment Link with Suicide: A U.S. Panel Analysis 1968-2020," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    19. Amir Alizadeh & Manolis Kavussanos & David Menachof, 2004. "Hedging against bunker price fluctuations using petroleum futures contracts: constant versus time-varying hedge ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1337-1353.
    20. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:19:p:2161-2165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.