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Cyclical and causal patterns of inflation and GDP growth

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  • Mahmood Arai
  • Mats Kinnwall
  • Peter Skogman Thoursie

Abstract

Empirical foundations for the view that high inflation impairs GDP growth are examined using annual data for 115 countries over the period 1960-1995. Taking into account country heterogeneity and time-specific symmetric shocks, as well as endogeneity of inflation and dynamics of GDP growth, dynamic panel-data models of the effects of inflation on growth are estimated. No evidence is found supporting the view that inflation is in general harmful to GDP growth. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between contemporaneous intra-country inflation and growth for periods characterized by positive oil-price shocks.

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  • Mahmood Arai & Mats Kinnwall & Peter Skogman Thoursie, 2004. "Cyclical and causal patterns of inflation and GDP growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1705-1715.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:15:p:1705-1715
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000266874
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Rault & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2008. "Further theoretical and empirical evidence on money to growth relation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(13), pages 1.
    2. Anuar Sanusi & Faurani Santi Singagerda & Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani, 2021. "World Oil Price Shocks in Macroeconomic ASEAN +3 Countries: Measurement of Risk Management and Decision-making a Linear Dynamic Panel Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 75-83.
    3. Ming-Chih Lee & Wan-Hsiu Cheng, 2007. "Correlated jumps in crude oil and gasoline during the Gulf War," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 903-913.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:21:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
    6. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:4:p:399-423 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Aamir Aijaz Syed, 2021. "The Asymmetric Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Industrial Productivity: An Empirical Analysis of India, China and Pakistan Via the NARDL Approach," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(1), pages 77-97, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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