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Alternative lag length selection criteria and the split-trend stationarity hypothesis

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  • Christian Weber

Abstract

This study asks whether evidence that key macroeconomic time series are stationary around broken trends is robust to using different criteria to determine the lag length in the ADF regressions. When lag lengths are determined using the Schwarz criterion or two different specific-to-general methods, tests for unit roots in several series in the Nelson-Plosser (1982) data and in US postwar real GNP find weaker evidence against the unit root hypothesis than either Perron (1989), who set the date for the break in the trend a priori or Zivot and Andrews (1992), who determined the break date endogenously.

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  • Christian Weber, 2001. "Alternative lag length selection criteria and the split-trend stationarity hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 237-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:2:p:237-247
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840121781
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    2. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    3. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    4. Friedman, Milton, 1990. "The Crime of 1873," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1159-1194, December.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
    2. Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2007. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Spain," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    3. ALTINAY, Galip, 2005. "Structural Breaks in Long-Term Turkish Macroeconomic Data,1923-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(4).

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