IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v33y2001i10p1271-1281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money, prices and causality: monetarist versus structuralist explanations using pooled country evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Pinga
  • Gerald Nelson

Abstract

The direction of causality between changes in money supply and aggregate prices has long been a matter of controversy between structuralists and monetarists. This paper addresses deficiencies in this literature in three ways. First, a large sample of countries with alternate measures of money and price variables is used to evaluate the evidence on money, inflation and causality. Second, combined data are tested for causality, with the combinations based on variables suggested by the literature - level of per capita income, magnitude of inflation, degree of financial market development, and independence of the central bank. Finally, because the choice of lag length is often arbitrary, results are generated with varying lags and consistency across different lag periods looked for. Two presentation methods are developed - categorical and graphical. Evidence of structural inflation, was found only in Chile and Sri Lanka. Evidence of money supply exogeneity on the other hand was found to be strongest in Kuwait, Paraguay and the USA. Most countries exhibited mixed evidence of money supply endogeneity, with bidirectional causation between money supply and aggregate prices a common result.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Pinga & Gerald Nelson, 2001. "Money, prices and causality: monetarist versus structuralist explanations using pooled country evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1271-1281.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:10:p:1271-1281
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840122078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840122078
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840122078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Darrat, Ali F., 1986. "Money, inflation, and causality in the North African Countries: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 87-103.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, December.
    5. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "CENTRAL BANK STRATEGY, CREDIBILITY, AND INDEPENDANCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE: Compte Rendu par Dominique Cariofillo," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 581-590, December.
    6. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Wohar, Mark E, 1984. "Monetarism and the Aggregate Economy: Some Longer-Run Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(4), pages 619-629, November.
    7. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "The Casual Causal Relationship between Money and Income: Some Caveats for Time Series Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(4), pages 521-533, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Papavangjeli, Meri, 2022. "Combining monetary, fiscal and structural approaches to model Albanian inflation," MPRA Paper 116917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, January.
    3. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
    4. Yulia Vymyatnina, 2013. "Money Supply and Monetary Policy in Russia: A Post-Keynesian Approach Revisited," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-04/13, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    5. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2004. "Demand for broad money and expenditure components in Japan: an empirical study," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 487-502, December.
    6. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Malaysia?," MPRA Paper 19778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chor Foon Tang & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Can Inflation be Claimed as a Monetary Phenomenon? The Malaysian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 453-460.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herman Bennett & Norman Loayza, 2002. "Policy Biases when the Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Have Different Objectives," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 11, pages 299-330, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    3. MARTÍNEZ-RUIZ, Elena & NOGUES-MARCO, Pilar, 2018. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Stability During the Gold Standard. Spain 1874—1914," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-75, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    5. Artha, I.K.D.S. & de Haan, J., 2010. "Legal and actual central bank independence," Research Report 10004, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    6. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March.
    7. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2011. "Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3690, CESifo.
    8. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    9. Chris Hanretty & Christel Koop, 2013. "Shall the law set them free? The formal and actual independence of regulatory agencies," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 195-214, June.
    10. Lucía Cuadro Sáez & Sonsoles Gallego Herrero & Alicia García Herrero, 2003. "Why Do Countries Develop More Financially Than Others? The Role Of The Central Bank And Banking Supervision," Finance 0304006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Athanasios Papadopoulos & Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2005. "Central Bank Reform and Inflation Dynamics in the Transition Economies theory and some evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 58, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    12. Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Currency crises and institutions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145, February.
    13. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    14. Vittorio Corbo, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Latin America in the 90s," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 6, pages 117-166, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Serhan Cevik & Tianle Zhu, 2020. "Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence And Inflation In The Caribbean," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 375-388, April.
    16. Tamim Bayoumi & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl F Habermeier & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Fabian Valencia, 2014. "Monetary Policy in the New Normal," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/3, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2002. "Monetary Union in West Africa: An Agency of Restraint for Fiscal Policies?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 11(3), pages 387-412, September.
    18. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    19. Aleksandra A. Maslowska, 2011. "Quest for the Best: How to Measure Central Bank Independence and Show its Relationship with Inflation," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 132-161, August.
    20. Davide Romelli, 2022. "The political economy of reforms in Central Bank design: evidence from a new dataset," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(112), pages 641-688.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:10:p:1271-1281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.