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Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?

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  • Willie Belton
  • Richard Cebula

Abstract

This research examines capacity utilization as a measure of economic slack in the US economy. Many macroeconomists have questioned the use of capacity utilization as a measure of economics slack on several fronts. The first issue revolves around the definition and accuracy of measurement of the capacity utilization rate in the US economy. Since this research use existing Federal Reserve measures of capacity utilization no insights into the definition and measurement issues are offered other than the fact that a consistent role is found for two different Fed measures of capacity utilization in explaining inflation. The second issue effectively involves the concern as to robustness of the link between the capacity utilization rate and inflation. It was found that there is indeed reason for the Federal Reserve to take note of changes in capacity utilization when trying to determine its policy position with regard to inflation. Clearly, the high capacity measure developed in this research offers distinct information about the inflation process. The third issue raises the question as to whether the capacity utilization and unemployment rates are complements or substitutes in the inflation equation. Both rates tend to provide similar information regarding price changes at low levels of aggregate resource usage. However, as resource usage in the economy becomes increasingly close to its maximum potential, the labour market impact on inflation, as capture by unemployment rate measures, is distinctly different from that of capacity constraints. Finally, if the capacity utilization rate is indeed a useful measure of inflationary pressure, is there a threshold level of the capacity utilization rate above which policymakers should become particularly concerned about the potential of accelerating inflation? It was found that across two measures of inflation, the widely discussed capacity threshold level is in the 84-85% range.

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  • Willie Belton & Richard Cebula, 2000. "Capacity utilization rates and unemployment rates: are they complements or substitutes in warning about future inflation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(14), pages 1853-1864.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:14:p:1853-1864
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400425071
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    1. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    2. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
    3. James R. Barth, 1991. "The Great Savings and Loan Debacle," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 918256, September.
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    1. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 19(40), pages 5-45, December.
    2. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Vagliasindi, Maria, 2006. "Capacity utilization of the Kazakhstani firms and the Russian financial crisis: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 231-248, October.
    3. Xiaohong Li & John Ogier & John Cullen, 2006. "An economic modelling approach for public sector construction workload planning," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 1137-1147.
    4. Svetlana V. Orekhova & Evgeny V. Kislitsyn, 2019. "Total factor productivity in the Russian industry: Small vs large enterprises," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 124-144, May.

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