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Determinants of the expected real long-term interest rates in the G7-countries

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  • Jorg Kramer

Abstract

The paper investigates which factors determine the expected real long-term interest rates of the G7-countries as a whole within a single equation error correction model. Inflationary expectations are generated using the low frequency component of inflation provided by the Hodrick-Prescott filter. A comparison of the calculated expected inflation rates with those resulting from index-linked and conventional UK bonds suggests this approach to be appropriate. Expected real long-term interest rates turn out to be influenced positively by real short-term interest rates, capacity utilization and structural public borrowing.

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  • Jorg Kramer, 1998. "Determinants of the expected real long-term interest rates in the G7-countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 279-285, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:2:p:279-285
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498326074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "International Capital Mobility in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 4534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ford, Robert & Laxton, Douglas, 1999. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94, Summer.
    4. Lapp, Susanne, 1996. "The Feldstein-Horioka paradox: A selective survey of the literature," Kiel Working Papers 752, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    2. João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    3. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    4. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.

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