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A re-examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks

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  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J
  • Eduardo Roca

Abstract

We test the Unbiased Forward Rate (UFR) hypothesis using new tests for cointegration developed by Hatemi-J (2008a) that allows for multiple unknown structural breaks. We analyse the Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY) (versus the US dollar (USD)) spot rates and forward rates relationship during the period 5 January 1999 to 28 December 2006. We find that the UFR does hold when the effects of the unknown structural breaks are taken into account. The parameters that we obtained were close to unity; hence, taking into account transaction cost and the existence of a risk premium, earning arbitrage profits may still not be possible. Thus, the markets for these currencies may still be considered as efficient.

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  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2012. "A re-examination of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in the presence of multiple unknown structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(11), pages 1443-1448, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:11:p:1443-1448
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2010.543075
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    3. Josef Arlt & Martin Mandel, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Relationships between the Forward Exchange Rates and Present and Future Spot Exchange Rates Example of CZK/USD and CZK/EUR," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 199-220, June.

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