Optimization agricultural production under financial risk of water constraint in the Jordan Valley

Some sectors of the Jordanian agriculture have reached, over the last few years, a considerably high standard of competitiveness. Such evolution occurred in a period where the government started to have a more passive position and, producers, in turn, tried themselves to modify the production structures, adapting to the forces of the market and to the demands for internal and external competitiveness. Jordan Valley (JV) is considered as a basket of fruit and vegetables of Jordan that allows production of seasonal crops. The main constraint to agriculture in JV is water availability. Target Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation (MOTAD) model was used to evaluate three levels of water availability and these are: current normal situation, 50% and 30% water reduction. It was evident that crops behaviour under risk condition in JV differs according to the risk associated with production process, both for season and amount of water available for irrigation where the impact of water reduction was obvious in winter (spring) farming season.