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Estimating The S&P Fundamental Value Using Star Models

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  • Fredj Jawadi

Abstract

This paper develops a new empirical measure of the S&P fundamental value under the rational expectation hypothesis. Thus, using the linearization of Campbell and Shiller (1988) and referring to the developments of Challe (2002), we extend the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) by introducing nonlinearity in estimating the expected future dividends and the discounted rate. Among many nonlinear models, we retained the STAR (Smooth Transition Autoregressive) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredj Jawadi, 2008. "Estimating The S&P Fundamental Value Using Star Models," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(1), pages 137-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:gjbres:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:137-146
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    3. Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007. "Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries," Working Papers halshs-00172896, HAL.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    6. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    7. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 345-367.
    8. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2001. "Nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and predictability in stock markets: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 459-482.
    9. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    10. Burak Saltoglu, 1998. "Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium: an application with US Stock Price and Dividend data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 367-375.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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