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Estimating The S&P Fundamental Value Using Star Models

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  • Fredj Jawadi

Abstract

This paper develops a new empirical measure of the S&P fundamental value under the rational expectation hypothesis. Thus, using the linearization of Campbell and Shiller (1988) and referring to the developments of Challe (2002), we extend the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) by introducing nonlinearity in estimating the expected future dividends and the discounted rate. Among many nonlinear models, we retained the STAR (Smooth Transition Autoregressive) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredj Jawadi, 2008. "Estimating The S&P Fundamental Value Using Star Models," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(1), pages 137-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:gjbres:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:137-146
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    3. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    4. Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007. "Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries," Working Papers halshs-00172896, HAL.
    5. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 345-367.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Burak Saltoglu, 1998. "Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium: an application with US Stock Price and Dividend data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 367-375.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    9. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    10. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2001. "Nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and predictability in stock markets: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 459-482.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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