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Revisiting serial dependence in the stock markets of the G7 countries, Portugal, Spain and Greece

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  • Paulo Ferreira
  • Andreia Dion�sio

Abstract

This article uses several tests to analyse serial dependence in financial data, trying to confirm the existence of some kind of nonlinear dependence in stock markets. In an attempt to provide a better explanation of the behaviour of stock markets, we used tests based on mutual information and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Applying these tests to the series of stock market indexes of 10 countries, we concluded for the absence of linear autocorrelation. However, with other tests, we found nonlinear serial dependence that affects the rates of return. With DFA, we found out that most return rate series have long-range dependence, which appears to be more pronounced for Spain, Greece and Portugal. To confirm the inefficiency of those markets, based on our results, we should prove the existence of abnormal profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Ferreira & Andreia Dion�sio, 2014. "Revisiting serial dependence in the stock markets of the G7 countries, Portugal, Spain and Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 319-331, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:24:y:2014:i:5:p:319-331
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2013.875106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcelo Fernandes & Breno Neri, 2010. "Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 276-306.
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    1. repec:aly:journl:201605 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paulo Ferreira, 2020. "Dynamic long-range dependences in the Swiss stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1541-1573, April.
    3. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2021. "Dynamic cross-correlation and dynamic contagion of stock markets: a sliding windows approach with the DCCA correlation coefficient," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1127-1156, March.
    4. Paulo Ferreira & Andreia Dionisio, 2015. "Revisiting Covered Interest Parity in the European Union: the DCCA Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 597-615, December.
    5. Paulo Ferreira, 2017. "Portuguese and Brazilian stock market integration: a non-linear and detrended approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(1), pages 49-63, April.
    6. Wahbeeah Mohti & Andreia Dionísio & Paulo Ferreira & Isabel Vieira, 2019. "Frontier markets’ efficiency: mutual information and detrended fluctuation analyses," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 551-572, September.
    7. Ladislav Kristoufek & Paulo Ferreira, 2018. "Capital asset pricing model in Portugal: Evidence from fractal regressions," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(3), pages 173-183, November.
    8. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2016. "Why does the Euro fail? The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 543-554.
    9. E. N. Gyamfi & E. F. Appiah, 2019. "Further evidence on the validity of purchasing power parity in selected African countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 330-343, April.
    10. Tilfani, Oussama & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Ferreira, Paulo & El Boukfaoui, My Youssef, 2022. "Heterogeneity in economic relationships: Scale dependence through the multivariate fractal regression," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).
    11. Ferreira, Paulo & Loures, Luís & Nunes, José Rato & Dionísio, Andreia, 2017. "The behaviour of share returns of football clubs: An econophysics approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 472(C), pages 136-144.
    12. Ferreira, Paulo, 2018. "Long-range dependencies of Eastern European stock markets: A dynamic detrended analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 454-470.
    13. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia, 2016. "How long is the memory of the US stock market?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 502-506.
    14. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Information sharing among cryptocurrencies: Evidence from mutual information and approximate entropy during COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    15. Guedes, E. & Dionísio, A. & Ferreira, P.J. & Zebende, G.F., 2017. "DCCA cross-correlation in blue-chips companies: A view of the 2008 financial crisis in the Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 38-47.
    16. Ferreira, Paulo, 2018. "Efficiency or speculation? A time-varying analysis of European sovereign debt," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1295-1308.
    17. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Correia, José, 2018. "Non-linear dependencies in African stock markets: Was subprime crisis an important factor?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 680-687.

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