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Time-varying betas of sectoral returns to market returns and exchange rate movements

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  • Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson
  • R. Scott Hacker

Abstract

The time-varying behaviour of the market and exchange risk betas of the US sectoral returns are estimated using a random walk process in connection with the Kalman filter. The empirical findings, in general, show that the market risks tend to shrink over longer time horizons, and that during the dot-com bubble burst and during the subprime financial crisis they tended to rise. During these crises they rose most notably in those industries most related to the crisis. Regarding exchange risk, industry returns appear in this study to be positively related to dollar appreciation, but that relationship declines with longer time horizons, in some cases resulting ultimately in a negative relationship between the US dollar and the industry returns. This latter result is consistent with the idea that the effect of a US dollar appreciation on competitiveness of the US exports becomes stronger with the longer time horizons. During the subprime financial crisis, the relation between excess returns and the exchange rate tended to fall, as was notably the case for the Technology sector during the dot-com bubble burst.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & R. Scott Hacker, 2013. "Time-varying betas of sectoral returns to market returns and exchange rate movements," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1155-1168, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:23:y:2013:i:14:p:1155-1168
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2013.797555
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    1. Doidge, Craig & Griffin, John & Williamson, Rohan, 2006. "Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 550-576, October.
    2. Jalal D. Akhavein & John H. Leusner & P. A. V. B. Swamy, "undated". "Solving an Empirical Puzzle in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-344, May.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Gül Serife Huyugüzel Kisla & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Coskun Akdeniz, 2021. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Sectoral Stock Returns in the BRICS-T Countries: A Time-Varying Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 9322, CESifo.
    4. Sercan Demiralay & Erhan Kilincarslan, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Sector-Specific REITs in a Regime-Switching Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 545-584, October.
    5. Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı & Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & A. Nazif Çatık, 2021. "The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Mohamad Husam Helmi & A. Nazif Catik & Begum Yurteri Kosedagli & Gul Serife Huyuguzel Kisla & Coskun Akdeniz, 2023. "The Effects of Energy Prices on Oil-Gas Sectoral Stock Returns for BRIC Countries: Evidence from Space State Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 430-440, November.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Huyuguzel Kısla, Gul Serife & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2022. "Oil prices and sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries: A time-varying approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Nazif Çatık, Abdurrahman & Huyugüzel Kışla, Gül & Akdeni̇z, Coşkun, 2020. "Time-varying impact of oil prices on sectoral stock returns: Evidence from Turkey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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