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The role of the economic environment on mortgage defaults during the Great Recession

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  • Camilo Sarmiento

Abstract

This article shows that the rise in unemployment played a very significant factor in the rise of mortgage delinquencies during the Great Recession. Estimation results, moreover, show that changes in the Unemployment Rate (UR; from loan origination) as opposed to the level of the UR explain mortgage default. Mortgage default is found to be significantly less responsive to declines than to increases in the UR.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilo Sarmiento, 2012. "The role of the economic environment on mortgage defaults during the Great Recession," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 243-250, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:3:p:243-250
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.613753
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camilo Sarmiento, 2009. "Regime changes in sub-prime margins under the US housing bubble," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 175-182.
    2. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    3. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June.
    4. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    5. Dennis Capozza & Thomas Thomson, 2006. "Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 241-258, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Salvador Climent-Serrano & Elisabeth Bustos-Contell & Gregorio Labatut-Serer, 2019. "Differential Effect on the Determinants of the Late Payments According to the Economic Cycle," Journal of Business Administration Research, Journal of Business Administration Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 14-28, April.
    2. Andrés Alegría & Jorge Bravo, 2015. "Análisis de Riesgo de los Deudores Hipotecarios en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 766, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Salvador Climent-Serrano, 2019. "Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 325-340, January.

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