IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v21y2011i11p771-787.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The horizon effect of stock return predictability and model uncertainty on portfolio choice: UK evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Guangjie Li

Abstract

We study how stock return's predictability and model uncertainty affect a rational buy-and-hold investor's decision to allocate her wealth for different lengths of investment horizons in the UK market. We consider the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) All-Share Index as the risky asset, and the UK Treasury bill as the risk free asset in forming the investor's portfolio. We identify the most powerful predictors of the stock return by accounting for model uncertainty. We find that though stock return predictability is weak, it can still affect the investor's optimal portfolio decision over different investment horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Guangjie Li, 2011. "The horizon effect of stock return predictability and model uncertainty on portfolio choice: UK evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(11), pages 771-787.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:11:p:771-787
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.537630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603107.2010.537630
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603107.2010.537630?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brennan, Michael J & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 905-942.
    2. Michael J. BRENNAN & Yihong XIA, 1999. "Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies," FAME Research Paper Series rp10, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wade D. Pfau, 2012. "Long-term investors and valuation-based asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(16), pages 1343-1353, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xia, Yihong, 2000. "Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3167f8mz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. Gollier Christian, 2004. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Risk with First-Order and Second-Order Predictability," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, September.
    3. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    4. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
    5. Li, GuangJie, 2009. "The Horizon Effect of Stock Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty on Portfolio Choice: UK Evidence," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Aug 2009.
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Size and Value Anomalies under Regime Shifts," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-48, Winter.
    7. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 15-48, January.
    8. Yizhan Shu & John M. Mulvey, 2024. "Dynamic Factor Allocation Leveraging Regime-Switching Signals," Papers 2410.14841, arXiv.org.
    9. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    10. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "1/N and long run optimal portfolios: results for mixed asset menus," Working Papers 2010-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Chou, Pin-Huang & Li, Wen-Shen & Zhou, Guofu, 2006. "Portfolio optimization under asset pricing anomalies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-142, March.
    12. Bolorsuvd Batbold & Kentaro Kikuchi & Koji Kusuda, 2022. "Semi-analytical solution for consumption and investment problem under quadratic security market model with inflation risk," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 4, December.
    13. Tomas Björk & Mark Davis & Camilla Landén, 2010. "Optimal investment under partial information," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 71(2), pages 371-399, April.
    14. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
    15. George Karathanasis & Konstantinos Kassimatis & Spyros Spyrou, 2010. "Size and momentum in European equity markets: empirical findings from varying beta Capital Asset Pricing Model," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 143-169, March.
    16. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    17. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    18. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.
    19. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "Ex Post Portfolio Performance with Predictable Skewness and Kurtosis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 191, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    20. Lundtofte, Frederik, 2008. "Expected life-time utility and hedging demands in a partially observable economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1072-1096, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:11:p:771-787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.