On the Bias of the Unbiased Expectation Theory
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013.
"A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
- Ivan Shaliastovich & Ravi Bansal, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 778, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 18357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997.
"On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Farshid Jamshidian, 1997. "LIBOR and swap market models and measures (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 293-330.
- Gibson, William E, 1972. "Interest Rates and Inflationary Expectations: New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 854-865, December.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021.
"A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
- Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp641, Financial Markets Group.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Dimitri Vayanos & Jean-Luc Vila, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 15487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & ,, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 7547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2021. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000.
"Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gibson, William E, 1970. "Price Expectations Effects on Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 19-34, March.
- Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
- John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005.
"A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999.
"Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves,"
Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348, October.
- Björk, Tomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 1997. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 209, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
- Daniel L. Thornton, 2005.
"Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates,"
Working Papers
2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 977, European Central Bank.
- David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008.
"Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
- Alan Brace & Dariusz G¸atarek & Marek Musiela, 1997. "The Market Model of Interest Rate Dynamics," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 127-155, April.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000.
"Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1997. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 6128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1998. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-083, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
"An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2015. "Can behavioral biases explain the rejections of the expectation hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-193.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Gibson, William E, 1973. "Price-Expectations Effects on Interest Rates: Reply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 751-753, June.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
- Brennan, Michael J & Xia, Yihong, 2001.
"Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 905-942.
- Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 1999. "Assessing Assets Pricing Anomalies," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3jx02532, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October.
- He, Hua & Leland, Hayne, 1993.
"On Equilibrium Asset Price Processes,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 593-617.
- Hua He and Hayne Leland., 1991. "Equilibrium Asset Price Processes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-221, University of California at Berkeley.
- Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
- Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
- Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
- repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
- Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
- Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
- Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
- Backus, David & Foresi, Silverio & Mozumdar, Abon & Wu, Liuren, 2001.
"Predictable changes in yields and forward rates,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 281-311, March.
- David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Abon Mozumdar & Liuren Wu, 1998. "Predictable Changes in Yields and Forward Rates," NBER Working Papers 6379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
- Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kjær, Mads Markvart & Veliyev, Bezirgen, 2023.
"The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
- Bent Jesper Christensen & Mads Markvart Kjær & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2021. "The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk," CREATES Research Papers 2021-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018.
"Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
- Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175, December.
- Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
- Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2001. "Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 201-237.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2012.
"Bayesian inference in a Stochastic Volatility Nelson–Siegel model,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3774-3792.
- Hautsch, Nikolaus & Yang, Fuyu, 2010. "Bayesian inference in a stochastic volatility Nelson-Siegel Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-004, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Almeida, Caio & Graveline, Jeremy J. & Joslin, Scott, 2011. "Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 35-44, September.
- Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
- Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
- Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
More about this item
Keywords
spot rates; forward rates; expectation hypothesis; Vasicek model; CIR model;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2023:i:1:p:105-:d:1308967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.