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Permanent and transitory dynamics in house prices and consumption: some implications for the real effects of the financial crisis

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  • Fabio Bagliano
  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

In this article, a small-scale macroeconomic system is estimated in the framework of a common trends model, in order to explore the dynamic interactions between real house prices, consumption expenditure and output in the US and major European economies. The results point to important differences across countries, with long-run house price effects on consumption only for France, Germany and the US. However, interactions between house prices and consumption are detected in all countries at shorter horizons, with important implications of the current unwinding of the sub-prime crisis for real activity. Evidence for international comovements in the common trend component of house price dynamics is also found.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Permanent and transitory dynamics in house prices and consumption: some implications for the real effects of the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 151-170.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:1-2:p:151-170
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100903266443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Andrea Finicelli, 2007. "House price developments and fundamentals in the United States," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 7, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    4. Buiter, Willem H., 2010. "Housing wealth isn't wealth," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-29.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    6. Warne, A., 1993. "A Common Trends Model: Identification, Estimation and Inference," Papers 555, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    7. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2017. "House prices in Portugal - what happened since the crisis?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201713 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2011. "Macro-finance interactions in the US: A global perspective," Working papers 23, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.

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