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Exchange rate risk and Philippine stock returns: before and after the Asian financial crisis

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  • Rodolfo Aquino

Abstract

This paper examines whether the Philippine stock market prices exchange rate risk during the period 1992-2001; specifically, before and after the onset of the Asian financial crisis. Using a two-factor arbitrage pricing theory model, the evidence presented in the paper suggests that stock returns did not react significantly to foreign exchange rate fluctuations before the period of the crisis. After the onset of the crisis, however, Philippine firms started to exhibit cross-sectional differences in their reaction to exchange rate movements. Furthermore, during the post-crisis period, investors began to expect a risk premium on their investments for their perceived added exposure to exchange rate risk. In the larger, macroeconomic sense, this implies market inefficiencies in the foreign exchange or stock market or both and inadequate hedging by local firms for foreign exchange risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Aquino, 2005. "Exchange rate risk and Philippine stock returns: before and after the Asian financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 765-771.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:11:p:765-771
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500107784
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 363-376, September.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Chortareas, Georgios & Cipollini, Andrea & Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, 2012. "Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 119-127.
    4. Mehmet PEKKAYA & Ersin AÇIKGÖZ & Veli YILANCI, 2017. "Panel causality analysis between exchange rates and stock indexes for fragile five," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 33-44, Summer.
    5. Ladrón de Guevara Cortés Rogelio & Torra Porras Salvador, 2014. "Estimation of the underlying structure of systematic risk with the use of principal component analysis and factor analysis," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 59(3), pages 197-234, julio-sep.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    7. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2017. "The impact of foreign equity flows on market volatility during politically tranquil and turbulent times: The Egyptian experience," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 61-77.
    8. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Samantha Hum & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "Sovereign rating changes and realized volatility in Asian foreign exchange markets during the Asian crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 997-1003.
    9. Rodolfo Aquino, 2006. "A variance equality test of the ICAPM on Philippine stocks: post-Asian financial crisis period," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 353-362.
    10. Zhuhua Jiang & Rim El Khoury & Muneer M. Alshater & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2024. "Impact of global macroeconomic factors on spillovers among Australian sector markets: Fresh findings from a wavelet‐based analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 78-105, March.
    11. Mapa, Dennis S. & Paz, Nino Joseph I. & Eustaquio, John D. & Mindanao, Miguel Antonio C., 2014. "Forecasting Time-Varying Correlation using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model," MPRA Paper 55861, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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