IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v14y2004i4p253-263.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intra-day periodicity, temporal aggregation and time-to-maturity in FTSE-100 index futures volatility

Author

Listed:
  • David McMillan
  • Alan Speight

Abstract

Intra-day periodicity has been widely observed in financial data. Recent research examining intra-day foreign exchange rate volatility dynamics reports that failure to account for this periodicity results in inconsistent GARCH parameter estimates in relationship to theoretical predictions on temporal aggregation. This article seeks to appraise the generality of this conclusion to the FTSE-100 index futures market. The nature of periodicity is first examined. Subsequent empirical results concerning the temporal aggregation of GARCH models show that the use of returns that are not adjusted for such periodicity are misleading. However, adjustment using a sine-cosine wave method or standardization by mean absolute returns provide more consistent results, the latter method dominating in out-of-sample forecasting of the volatility of successive individual futures contracts. The potential time-to-maturity effects of single contracts are also considered, but are statistically rejected for both forms of periodicity-adjusted data.

Suggested Citation

  • David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2004. "Intra-day periodicity, temporal aggregation and time-to-maturity in FTSE-100 index futures volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 253-263.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:4:p:253-263
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000201165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0960310042000201165
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0960310042000201165?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 1998. "The dangers of data-driven inference: the case of calender effects in stock returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Richard Payne, 1996. "Announcement Effects and Seasonality in the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp238, Financial Markets Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robin de Vilder & Marcel P. Visser, 2007. "Proxies for daily volatility," PSE Working Papers halshs-00588307, HAL.
    2. Chu, Carlin C.F. & Lam, K.P., 2011. "Modeling intraday volatility: A new consideration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 388-418, July.
    3. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Samantha Hum & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "Sovereign rating changes and realized volatility in Asian foreign exchange markets during the Asian crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 997-1003.
    4. Haniff, Mohd Nizal & Pok, Wee Ching, 2010. "Intraday volatility and periodicity in the Malaysian stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 329-343, September.
    5. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2008. "Long memory features in the high frequency data of the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(21), pages 5189-5196.
    6. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Heterogeneous information flows and intra-day volatility dynamics: evidence from the UK FTSE-100 stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 959-972.
    7. B.B. Chakrabarti & Vivek Rajvanshi, 2017. "Intraday Periodicity and Volatility Forecasting: Evidence from Indian Crude Oil Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2020. "Efectul Turn-of-the-Year pe piaţa valutară din România [The Turn-of-the-Year Effect in the Romanian foreign exchange market]," MPRA Paper 99365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2020.
    2. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 5, pages 189-245, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
    4. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    5. Edwin D. Maberly & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2000. "Closing the question on the continuation of turn-of-the-month effects: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures contract," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2000. "Central bank interventions and exchange rates: an analysis with high frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 349-362, December.
    7. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Saltoglu, Burak, 2002. "Assessing the risk forecasts for Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 63-85, January.
    8. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    9. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    10. Sasidharan, Anand, 2009. "Does seasonality persists in Indian stock markets?," MPRA Paper 24185, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2010.
    11. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2005. "Long-memory and heterogeneous components in high frequency Pacific-Basin exchange rate volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 12(3), pages 199-226, September.
    12. Ayman Abdalmajeed Ahmad Al-Smadi & Mahmoud Khalid Almsafir & Nur Hanis Hazwani Binti Husni, 2018. "Trends And Calendar Effects In Malaysia’S Stock Market," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 13(2), pages 15-22, June.
    13. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    14. Veredas, David & Rodríguez Poo, Juan M., 2001. "On the (intradaily) seasonality and dynamics of a financial point process: a semiparametric approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws013321, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Kunkel, Robert A. & Compton, William S. & Beyer, Scott, 2003. "The turn-of-the-month effect still lives: the international evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-221.
    16. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    17. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "What are the Origins of Foreign Exchange Movements?," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-06, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    18. Goran Karanovic & Bisera Karanovic, 2018. "The Day-of-the-Week Effect: Evidence from Selected Balkan Markets," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 65(1), pages 1-11, March.
    19. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
    20. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 1999. "Computing value at risk with high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 431-455, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:4:p:253-263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.