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Cointegration and predictability in prereform east European black-market exchange rates

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  • Alan Speight
  • David McMillan

Abstract

This paper examines the time series properties of the monthly black-market dollar exchange rates of the Bulgarian lev, Czech koruna, East German mark, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, Rumanian lei and Soviet ruble over the period 1955-1990. All series other than the mark exhibit a unit root in logarithms, and there is evidence of at least two cointegrating vectors linking the remaining rates. Weak exogeneity is rejected for the lev, forint and lei, but strong exogeneity cannot be rejected for the koruna, zloty and ruble, implying causality running from the latter group to the former group, which may be interpreted as reflecting channels of policy interdependence.

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  • Alan Speight & David McMillan, 2001. "Cointegration and predictability in prereform east European black-market exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(12), pages 755-759.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:12:p:755-759
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850110046516
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    1. Gregory C. Reinsel & Sung K. Ahn, 1992. "Vector Autoregressive Models With Unit Roots And Reduced Rank Structure:Estimation. Likelihood Ratio Test, And Forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 353-375, July.
    2. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahamuda Firoj & Sharmina Khanom, 2018. "Efficient Market Hypothesis: Foreign Exchange Market of Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 99-103.

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