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Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK

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  • John Ashworth
  • Barry Thomas

Abstract

Tourism employment has grown rapidly (a fact which has been of interest to policymakers concerned with job generation) but it has a marked seasonal character. Several attempts have been made by the industry to lessen seasonality in tourism demand (and hence in tourism employment) by fillng troughs. This paper uses recent advances in econometric work to investigate whether seasonality has lessened as a result of these policies, and if so, the nature of the changes in seasonality. A quarterly UK data series from 1982:1 to 1996:4 is examined. The distinction between stochastic and deterministic trend is made, and it is found that seasonality has in fact lessened and is best modelled as a break in deterministic seasonality. There has been approximately a 30% fall in the summer (second quarter) effect and approximately a 24% fall in the winter (fourth quarter) effect: thus the seasonal smoothing comes from lower hiring at the start of the peak season and lower firing at the end of the season.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ashworth & Barry Thomas, 1999. "Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 735-739.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:11:p:735-739
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Scott, 1995. "Why is consumption so seasonal?," Economics Working Papers 122, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Zacharias Psaradakis, 1997. "Testing for unit roots in time series with nearly deterministic seasonal variation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 421-439.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Morales, Antonio & Cisneros-Martínez, José David & McCabe, Scott, 2016. "Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 172-190.
    2. Sara Dalir & Abror Mahamadaminov & Hossein GT Olya, 2021. "Airbnb and taxation: Developing a seasonal tax system," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(2), pages 365-378, March.
    3. Andrej Agacevic & Ming Xu, 2020. "Chinese Tourists as a Sustainable Boost to Low Seasons in Ex-Yugoslavia Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-38, January.
    4. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    5. Guimarães, Maria Helena & Sousa, Carlos & Dentinho, Tomaz & Boski, Tomasz, 2014. "Economic base model for the Guadiana estuary, Portugal an application for Integrated Coastal Zone Management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-70.
    6. Evren Erdoğan Cosar, 2006. "Seasonal behaviour of the consumer price index of Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 449-455.
    7. Paz Rico & Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás & Francisco Morillas-Jurado, 2021. "Seasonality in Tourism: Do Senior Programs Mitigate It?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-27, August.
    8. Janta, Hania & Ladkin, Adele & Brown, Lorraine & Lugosi, Peter, 2011. "Employment experiences of Polish migrant workers in the UK hospitality sector," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1006-1019.
    9. Anna Dóra Sæþórsdóttir & C. Michael Hall & Þorkell Stefánsson, 2019. "Senses by Seasons: Tourists’ Perceptions Depending on Seasonality in Popular Nature Destinations in Iceland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Antonio Fern�ndez-Morales, 2017. "Tourism Mobility In Time And Seasonality In Tourism," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 71(2), pages 21-30, April-Jun.
    11. Martínez, José Manuel Guaita & Martín, José María Martín & Rey, María del Sol Ostos, 2020. "An analysis of the changes in the seasonal patterns of tourist behavior during a process of economic recovery," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    12. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
    13. Jorge Ridderstaat & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Measuring Pattern, Amplitude and Timing Differences between Monetary and Non-Monetary Seasonal Factors of Tourism - the Case of Aruba," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-116/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 05 Sep 2013.

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