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Changes in the duration of economic expansions and contractions in the United States

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  • Jon Vilasuso

Abstract

This paper employs nonparametric change-point tests to business cycle duration data in the United States. The findings are consistent with recent studies citing longer expansions and shorter contractions since World War II. However, it is found that these shifts occurred much earlier. There is evidence of a single abrupt change-point to longer expansions that occurred in 1929. The shift towards shorter contractions was gradual: the transition began in 1918 and was completed in 1938.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Vilasuso, 1996. "Changes in the duration of economic expansions and contractions in the United States," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 803-806.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:3:y:1996:i:12:p:803-806
    DOI: 10.1080/135048596355637
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
    2. Ashish Sen & S. Srivastava, 1975. "On tests for detecting change in mean when variance is unknown," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 27(1), pages 479-486, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xuwen Zhu & Yana Melnykov, 2022. "On Finite Mixture Modeling of Change-point Processes," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 39(1), pages 3-22, March.

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