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Detecting Variance Change-Points for Blocked Time Series and Dependent Panel Data

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  • Minya Xu
  • Ping-Shou Zhong
  • Wei Wang

Abstract

This article proposes a class of weighted differences of averages (WDA) statistics to test and estimate possible change-points in variance for time series with weakly dependent blocks and dependent panel data without specific distributional assumptions. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics for testing the existence of a single variance change-point under the null and local alternatives. We also study the consistency of the change-point estimator. Within the proposed class of the WDA test statistics, a standardized WDA test is shown to have the best consistency rate and is recommended for practical use. An iterative binary searching procedure is suggested for estimating the locations of possible multiple change-points in variance, whose consistency is also established. Simulation studies are conducted to compare detection power and number of wrong rejections of the proposed procedure to that of a cumulative sum (CUSUM) based test and a likelihood ratio-based test. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a stock index dataset and an unemployment rate dataset. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Minya Xu & Ping-Shou Zhong & Wei Wang, 2016. "Detecting Variance Change-Points for Blocked Time Series and Dependent Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 213-226, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:34:y:2016:i:2:p:213-226
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2015.1026438
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    2. Jialiang Li & Yaguang Li & Tailen Hsing, 2022. "On functional processes with multiple discontinuities," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(3), pages 933-972, July.

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