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The winner/loser hypothesis: some preliminary Australian evidence on the impact of changing risk

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  • D. E. Allen
  • Robert Prince

Abstract

The extent of the winner-loser anomaly on the Austalian equities market for the period 1974-91 is examined. Documentation of the contrarian strategy is argued as being invalid unless compensation is made for changing risk premiums through time. The evidence shows a slight reversal for the winner portfolio based on raw returns, but risk adjusted winners continue to be winners and losers persist as losers although the behaviour is not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • D. E. Allen & Robert Prince, 1995. "The winner/loser hypothesis: some preliminary Australian evidence on the impact of changing risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 280-283.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:2:y:1995:i:8:p:280-283
    DOI: 10.1080/135048595357230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jones, Steven L., 1993. "Another look at time-varying risk and return in a long-horizon contrarian strategy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 119-144, February.
    2. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    3. Clare, A. & Thomas, S., 1992. "Winners and losers: UK evidence for the overreaction hypothesis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9229, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Beaver, William H. & Landsman, Wayne R., 1981. "Note on the behavior of residual security returns for winner and loser portfolios," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 233-241, December.
    5. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Zhang, Hao, 1992. "The Contrarian Investment Strategy Does Not Work in Canadian Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 383-395, September.
    6. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. "Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-581, July.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1385-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zarowin, Paul, 1990. "Size, Seasonality, and Stock Market Overreaction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 113-125, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rezvanian, Rasoul & Turk, Rima A. & Mehdian, Seyed M., 2011. "Investors' reactions to sharp price changes: Evidence from equity markets of the People's Republic of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Philip Gray & Mark Whittaker, 2003. "Future Long‐Horizon Performance Measurement Conditional on Past Survival," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 4(1‐2), pages 29-48, March.
    3. Gaunt, Clive, 2000. "Overreaction in the Australian equity market: 1974-1997," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 375-398, July.
    4. Rezvanian Rasoul & Klaczynska Ewelina & Krysiak Zbigniew, 2015. "Equity Market Reaction to Sharp Price Changes: Evidence from Poland," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 169-190, July.
    5. Gunaratne, P. S. M. & Yonesawa, Y., 1997. "Return reversals in the Tokyo Stock Exchange: A test of stock market overreaction," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 363-384, August.
    6. Muhammad Kashif & Sanyah Saad & Imran Umer Chhapra & Farhan Ahmed, 2018. "An Empirical Evidence of Over Reaction Hypothesis on Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 449-465, April.

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