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Future Long‐Horizon Performance Measurement Conditional on Past Survival

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  • Philip Gray
  • Mark Whittaker

Abstract

This paper examines the measurement of long‐horizon abnormal performance when stock selection is conditional on an extended period of past survival. Filtering on survival results in a sample driven towards more‐established, frequently traded stocks and this has implications for the choice of benchmark used in performance measurement (especially in the presence of the well‐documented size effect). A simulation study is conducted to document the properties of commonly employed performance measures conditional on past survival. The results suggest that the popular index benchmarks used in long‐horizon event studies are severely biased and yield test statistics that are badly misspecified. In contrast, a matched‐stock benchmark based on size and industry performs consistently well. Also, an eligible‐stock index designed to mitigate the influence of the size effect proves effective.

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  • Philip Gray & Mark Whittaker, 2003. "Future Long‐Horizon Performance Measurement Conditional on Past Survival," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 4(1‐2), pages 29-48, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:4:y:2003:i:1-2:p:29-48
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1369-412X.2003.00042.x
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    2. McGilvery, Andrew & Faff, Robert & Pathan, Shams, 2012. "Competitive valuation effects of Australian IPOs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 74-83.
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