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Inflation expectations, volatility and Covid-19: evidence from the US inflation swap rates

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  • Emmanuel Apergis
  • Nicholas Apergis

Abstract

The goal of this work is to explore the role of the Covid-19 pandemic event in the course of inflation expectations and their volatility through US inflation swap rates. The findings document that inflation expectations and their volatility are positively affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. These results have real activity implications, while close monitoring of inflation expectations could signal inflation expectations un-anchoring risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "Inflation expectations, volatility and Covid-19: evidence from the US inflation swap rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(15), pages 1327-1331, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:28:y:2021:i:15:p:1327-1331
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1813245
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    Cited by:

    1. Xindi Wang & Zeshui Xu & Xinxin Wang & Marinko Skare, 2022. "A review of inflation from 1906 to 2022: a comprehensive analysis of inflation studies from a global perspective," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 595-631, September.
    2. Qing Nie, 2023. "Has the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Change in Inflation Expectations Been Impacted by the COVID-19 Outbreak? A Comparison Between the United States and China," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 19(3), pages 1-55, June.
    3. Balcaen, Pieter & Buts, Caroline & Bois, Cind Du & Tkacheva, Olesya, 2023. "The effect of disinformation about COVID-19 on consumer confidence: Insights from a survey experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Jane M. Ryngaert, 2023. "Balance of Risks and the Anchoring of Consumer Expectations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    5. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    6. Pedersen, Michael, 2024. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation expectations: Evidence from a financial traders survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Wasim ul Rehman & Omur Saltik & Faryal Jalil & Suleyman Degirmen, 2024. "Viral decisions: unmasking the impact of COVID-19 info and behavioral quirks on investment choices," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Sui‐Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikli, 2022. "Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 141-154, March.

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