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Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

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  • Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers
  • Sui‐Jade Ho
  • Özer Karagedikli

Abstract

We study how individuals' formation of inflation expectations are affected by the stringent containment and economic support measures put in place during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Using the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the Oxford COVID‐19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we find that policies aimed at containing the pandemic lead to an increase in individuals' inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty. We also find some heterogeneity in the impact across different demographic groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Sui‐Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikli, 2022. "Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 141-154, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:1:p:141-154
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12460
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Balcaen, Pieter & Buts, Caroline & Bois, Cind Du & Tkacheva, Olesya, 2023. "The effect of disinformation about COVID-19 on consumer confidence: Insights from a survey experiment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Mihai Ioan Mutascu & Scott W. Hegerty, 2024. "Expected inflation and interest-rate dynamics in the COVID era: evidence from the time–frequency domain," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 559-582, May.
    3. Daria Minina & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2024. "The effect of information on consumer inflation expectations," Working Papers 810, DNB.
    4. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2022. "Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(3), pages 373-374, September.
    5. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences (Katharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler)," Working Papers 247, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. CSORBA Luiela Magdalena & JURAVLE Damaris Judita, 2022. "Study Regarding The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Inflation In Romania In The 2019 - 2020 Period," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 74(1), pages 51-64, August.
    7. Conces Binder, Carola & Campbell, Jeffrey & Ryngaert, Jane, 2022. "Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics," MPRA Paper 117628, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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