IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/assjnl/v19y2023i3p55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Has the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Change in Inflation Expectations Been Impacted by the COVID-19 Outbreak? A Comparison Between the United States and China

Author

Listed:
  • Qing Nie

Abstract

Economists and policymakers believe that households’ and firms’ expectations of future inflation are key determinants of actual inflation. This paper applies the ARDL model and nonlinear ARDL model to long-term inflation-targeting policy mechanisms in the United States and China to assess the impact of oil price dynamics and asymmetries on inflation expectations, as well as the difference of this impact before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to show the significant role of the COVID-19 outbreak, this paper includes the data from 2010 to 2021 and takes the pandemic period as a structural break. Taking oil price changes as a variable of interest, and introducing some other significant variables, we find that during the pandemic, the positive impact of oil price shock on U.S. inflation expectations has enhanced, whereas the positive impact on Chinese inflation expectations has weakened. There is also sufficient evidence of the existence of the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on inflation expectations in both countries, but the positive oil price change in the United States has always played a larger role than the negative oil price shock. In China, the impact of positive oil price shock was greater than that of negative oil prices before the epidemic and the effect of negative oil price shocks has increased significantly in the COVID-19 regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Qing Nie, 2023. "Has the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Change in Inflation Expectations Been Impacted by the COVID-19 Outbreak? A Comparison Between the United States and China," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 19(3), pages 1-55, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:assjnl:v:19:y:2023:i:3:p:55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ass/article/download/0/0/48769/52548
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ass/article/view/0/48769
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "Inflation expectations, volatility and Covid-19: evidence from the US inflation swap rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(15), pages 1327-1331, September.
    2. Bohi, Douglas R., 1991. "On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 145-162, June.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Zhang, Chengsi, 2011. "Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 622-629, January.
    5. Marfatia Hardik A., 2018. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan C., 2018. "Oil price dynamics and market-based inflation expectations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 484-491.
    8. Youshu Li & Junjie Guo, 2022. "The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1377-1395, March.
    9. Yu, Yang & Guo, SongLin & Chang, XiaoChen, 2022. "Oil prices volatility and economic performance during COVID-19 and financial crises of 2007–2008," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes & Saidi, Sana & Sellami, Mohamed, 2022. "Global pandemic crisis and risk contagion in GCC stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 746-761.
    2. Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on intraday volatility spillover between oil, gold, and stock markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 702-715.
    3. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    4. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizliği ilişkisi için G7 ekonomileri üzerine bir inceleme [An investigation for the inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship upon the G7 economies]," MPRA Paper 19478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.
    8. Aggarwal, Divya, 2019. "Do bitcoins follow a random walk model?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 15-22.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
    10. Afees A. Salisu & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2017. "Are daily agricultural grains prices stationary? New evidence from GARCH-based unit root tests," Working Papers 036, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    11. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    14. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
    15. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Amin Aminimehr & Ali Raoofi & Akbar Aminimehr & Amirhossein Aminimehr, 2022. "A Comprehensive Study of Market Prediction from Efficient Market Hypothesis up to Late Intelligent Market Prediction Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 781-815, August.
    17. Srinivasan, Naveen & Jain, Sumit & Ramachandran, M., 2009. "Monetary policy and the behaviour of inflation in India: Is there a need for institutional reform?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-24, January.
    18. Balaji Bathmanaban & Raja Sethu Durai S & Ramachandran M, 2017. "The relationship between Output Uncertainty and Economic Growth-Evidence from India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2680-2691.
    19. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos‐Francia, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(3), pages 349-362, July.
    20. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    21. Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2022. "The role of electricity flows and renewable electricity production in the behaviour of electricity prices in Spain," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 885-900.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:assjnl:v:19:y:2023:i:3:p:55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.