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Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

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  • Michal Skorepa
  • Lubos Komarek

Abstract

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Skorepa & Lubos Komarek, 2017. "Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1389-1392, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:19:p:1389-1392
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1282111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
    2. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
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