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Extreme value analysis of electricity demand in the UK

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  • Stephen Chan
  • Saralees Nadarajah

Abstract

For the first time, an extreme value analysis of electricity demand in the UK is provided. The analysis is based on the generalized Pareto distribution. Its parameters are allowed to vary linearly and sinusoidally with respect to time to capture patterns in the electricity demand data. The models are shown to give reasonable fits. Some useful predictions are given for the value at risk of the returns of electricity demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Chan & Saralees Nadarajah, 2015. "Extreme value analysis of electricity demand in the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1246-1251, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:15:p:1246-1251
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1021453
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    2. Sigauke, Caston & Verster, Andréhette & Chikobvu, Delson, 2013. "Extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand: Tail-quantile estimation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 90-96.
    3. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
    4. Claudia Kluppelberg & Thilo Meyer-Brandis & Andrea Schmidt, 2010. "Electricity spot price modelling with a view towards extreme spike risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 963-974.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce, 2017. "Modelling non-stationary time series using a peaks over threshold distribution with time varying covariates and threshold: An application to peak electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 152-166.
    2. Miller, J. Isaac & Nam, Kyungsik, 2022. "Modeling peak electricity demand: A semiparametric approach using weather-driven cross-temperature response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Schmitt, Stephan & Wissner, Matthias, 2016. "Kapazitätsmechanismen – Internationale Erfahrungen," WIK Discussion Papers 406, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    4. Urban, Timothy L. & Chiang, Wen-Chyuan, 2016. "Designing energy-efficient serial production lines: The unpaced synchronous line-balancing problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 789-801.

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