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The large country effect, contagion and spillover effects in the GCC

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  • Osman Suliman

Abstract

This article examines contagion and crisis propagation (spillovers) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies over the period 1960 to 2002. It also examines whether contagion occurred in Saudi Arabia (large country) after the 1987 US stock market crash and the 1997 Thai exchange rate devaluation and whether these contagion shocks spillover to smaller countries of the region. Spillovers are likely to occur among interdependent countries within the same geographical region. Tests based on correlation coefficients, ARCH/GARCH estimates and direct change (generalized least squares regression) propagation effects indicate that contagion from the US stock market crash and the Thai devaluation occurred in Saudi Arabia, and these external shocks were propagated to smaller GCC countries. This suggests that GCC countries are likely to mitigate such propagations through economic integration. Thus, the idea of GCC formation may help insulate Gulf economies against crisis propagation.

Suggested Citation

  • Osman Suliman, 2011. "The large country effect, contagion and spillover effects in the GCC," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 285-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:285-294
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851003614138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gu Jiafeng & Shen Tiyan & Zhang Jiadong, 2015. "Can Financial Shortages in China’s Education Be Contagious?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 193-213, June.
    2. Kerim Peren Arin & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Kyriacos Kyriacou & Nicola Spagnolo, 2020. "Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size Versus National Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 309-316, April.
    3. Rim Ammar Lamouchi & Suha Mahmoud Alawi, 2020. "Dynamic Linkages Between the Oil Spot, Oil Futures, and Stock Markets: Evidence from Dubai," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 377-383.
    4. Noureddine BENLAGHA & Slim MSEDDI, 2016. "The Macroeconomic And Financial Impacts Of European Crisis On Saudi Arabia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    5. Takagi, Shinji, 2012. "Establishing Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council: What Lessons for Regional Cooperation?," ADBI Working Papers 390, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Mr. Sohaib Shahid & Ling Zhu, 2018. "Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2018/278, International Monetary Fund.
    7. A. Maghyereh & B. Awartani, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers between Dubai financial market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange in the UAE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 837-848, May.

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