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Yield spreads and real economic activity in East European transition economies

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  • Stephanos Papadamou

Abstract

Recent research in developed countries provides evidence for the significant role of the yield spread on real economic activity. Using k-months industrial production growth rate model, this article attempts to ascertain whether similar results are obtained for countries from East Europe (Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia). The results suggest that the interest rate spread does indeed have some predictive power over the 24-months across the countries. These results remain qualitative robust to the inclusion of additional variables and to the change of unemployment rate as a different measure of economic activity. Cyclical movements of volatility appear to be unable to account for the usefulness of the spread for forecasting industrial production growth. Finally, it is found that the term spread is a better indicator of future real growth in countries with low and stable inflation (Czech Republic) and not in countries characterized by high and volatile inflation (Hungary).

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanos Papadamou, 2009. "Yield spreads and real economic activity in East European transition economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 531-537.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:16:y:2009:i:5:p:531-537
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850601032123
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reuben A. Kessel, 1965. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kess65-1.
    2. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, "undated". "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Staff Working Papers 94-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Philip Lowe, 1992. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates, Real Activity and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9204, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott W. Hegerty, 2011. "Interest-rate volatility and volatility spillovers in emerging Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 599-614, October.
    2. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
    3. Scott W. Hegerty, 2015. "Interest-Rate Volatility in the Baltics: Issues of Measurement and International Contagion," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 1(1), pages 12-27.

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