IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/irvfin/v5y2005i1-2p31-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bond Term Premium Analysis in the Presence of Multiple Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • RON GUIDO
  • KATHLEEN WALSH

Abstract

This papers addresses whether observed violations in the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH) can be explained by the presence of multiple regimes in the term premia. The investigation directly tests the LPH via a series of inequality tests which allow the moments to be conditioned on observable information using an instrumental variables approach. The apparent rejection of the LPH is then investigated by modeling the term premia over time using a simple Bayesian Markov mixture model. The results suggest the presence of time varying term premia and multiple regimes which may explain the apparent violations of the LPH.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Guido & Kathleen Walsh, 2005. "Bond Term Premium Analysis in the Presence of Multiple Regimes," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 5(1‐2), pages 31-54, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:5:y:2005:i:1-2:p:31-54
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2443.2006.00050.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2006.00050.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2006.00050.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reuben A. Kessel, 1965. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kess65-1.
    2. Kathleen D. Walsh, 2006. "Is the Ex Ante Risk Premium Always Positive? Further Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(1), pages 93-113, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    2. Luca Benzoni & Olena Chyruk & David Kelley, 2018. "Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Rolando F. Pelaez, 1997. "Riding the yield curve: Term premiums and excess returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 113-119.
    4. Hooker, Mark A., 1999. "The maturity structure of term premia with time-varying expected returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 391-407.
    5. Tiff Macklem & Alain Paquet & Louis Phaneuf, 1996. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 42, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    6. Guo, Feng & McCulloch, J.H., 2017. "Heterogeneous capital and misintermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 16-41.
    7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1984. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 44-48, May.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: the Role of Decomposed Term Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 101-116, January.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    10. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2006. "A Degeneracy in the Analysis of Volatility and Covolatility Effects," Working Papers 2006-30, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    12. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    13. Hasse, Jean-Baptiste & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2022. "Does the yield curve signal recessions? New evidence from an international panel data analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 9-22.
    14. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    15. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Marvin Goodfriend, 1993. "Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-24.
    17. Gerald Cheang & Carl Chiarella, 2011. "A Modern View on Merton's Jump-Diffusion Model," Research Paper Series 287, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    19. Sutton, Gregory D., 2000. "Is there excess comovement of bond yields between countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 363-376, June.
    20. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:5:y:2005:i:1-2:p:31-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.