IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v10y2003i9p589-595.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do interest rates predict real economic activity?

Author

Listed:
  • John Loizides
  • George Vamvoukas

Abstract

This paper employs a structural VAR procedure to test some fundamental propositions of the business cycle using a developing economy framework. The focus of the paper is on KBC, MBC and RBC theories as well as on the alternative view, which has been propagated mainly by Sims. The empirical analysis intends to report extensive evidence on the dynamics between money, output, interest rates and prices. The results suggest that the effects of system shocks conform to the alternative view supporting the central role of interest rates. Interest rate shocks explain a majority of the variation in money, output and prices. The results are generally robust across different orderings, alternative interest rate measures and various sample periods.

Suggested Citation

  • John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2003. "Do interest rates predict real economic activity?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 589-595.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:9:p:589-595
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000090749
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/1350485032000090749&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1350485032000090749?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benedict S. C. Fung & Rohit Gupta, 1997. "Cash Setting, the Call Loan Rate, and the Liquidity Effect in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1057-1082, November.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    4. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    5. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
    6. Philip Arestis & Peter Howells, 1992. "Institutional Developments and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 135-157, March.
    7. Cook, David, 1999. "The liquidity effect and money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 377-390, April.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "Financial Innovation, Inflation and the Stability of the Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 225-233, July.
    11. Philip Arestis (ed.), 1993. "Money and Banking," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-13319-2.
    12. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    2. Fung, Ben Siu-cheong & Kasumovich, Marcel, 1998. "Monetary shocks in the G-6 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 575-592, October.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    4. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
    5. Davis, Mark S. & Tanner, J. Ernest, 1997. "Money and economic activity revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 955-968, December.
    6. Choi, Jae-Young & Ratti, Ronald A., 2000. "The Predictive Power of Alternative Indicators of Monetary Policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 581-610, October.
    7. Kleibergen, F., 1996. "Reduced Rank of Regression Using Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Other publications TiSEM 5caf1c0c-d988-4184-acf7-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Gebre-Mariam, Yohannes Kebede, 2011. "Testing for unit roots, causality, cointegration, and efficiency: The case of the northwest US natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3489-3500.
    9. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    10. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho de Guillén & Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araújo, 2005. "O Mecanismo De Transmissão Da Taxa De Câmbio Para Índices De Preços: Uma Análise Vecm Para O Brasil," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 034, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. E. E. Ioannidis & G. A. Chronis, 2005. "Extreme Spectra of Var Models and Orders of Near‐Cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 399-421, May.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    14. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    15. Hubert Strauß, 2001. "Euroland's Trade with Third Countries: An Estimation Based on NIPA Data," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 434-449.
    16. Bunzel, Helle, 2006. "FIXED-b ASYMPTOTICS IN SINGLE-EQUATION COINTEGRATION MODELS WITH ENDOGENOUS REGRESSORS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 743-755, August.
    17. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    18. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Stamopoulou, Ioanna, 2011. "The role of monetary policy in managing the euro - dollar exchange rate," MPRA Paper 29291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hsiao, Cheng & Fujiki, Hiroshi, 1998. "Nonstationary Time-Series Modeling versus Structural Equation Modeling: With an Application to Japanese Money Demand," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 16(1), pages 57-79, May.
    20. Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Exchange rate cointegration across central bank regime shifts," Research Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:9:p:589-595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.