IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v10y2003i7p431-435.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Funda Telatar
  • Erdinc Telatar

Abstract

The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty is investigated in Turkey during the period of 1995:3-2000:12. A time-varying parameter model of inflation with heteroscedastic disturbances is used to generate different sources of inflation uncertainty and then Granger methods are employed to test for causality between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty. The findings show that there is a causative influence of inflation on its uncertainty arising due to time-varying parameters of the inflation model. No evidence is found on the correlation between inflation and inflation uncertainty arising due to heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2003. "The relationship between inflation and different sources of inflation uncertainty in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 431-435.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:7:p:431-435
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000066868
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/1350485032000066868&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1350485032000066868?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
    2. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1996. "Capital inflows and the real exchange rate: analytical framework and econometric evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 101-146.
    3. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    4. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C. John & Ucer, Murat, 1997. "Fiscal imbalances, capital inflows, and the real exchange rate: The case of Turkey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 819-825, April.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    7. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    8. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    11. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    12. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1993. "Sources of Monetary Growth Uncertainty and Economic Activity: The Time-Varying-Parameter Model with Heteroskedastic Disturbances," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 483-492, August.
    13. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
    15. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    16. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1990. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Long and Short Horizons," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 215-254.
    17. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-421, August.
    18. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2012. "Investigating the Time Varying Nature of the Link between Inflation and Currency Substitution in the Turkish Economy," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20122, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    2. Abdul Qahar KHATIR & Burcu GÜVENEKAuthor-Name: Fatih MANGIR, 2021. "The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Academic Value Studies, Journal of Academic Value Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 331-340, Month: Fe.
    3. James Payne, 2009. "Inflation targeting and the inflation-inflation uncertainty relationship: evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 233-238.
    4. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.
    5. M. Berument & Yeliz Yalcin & Julide Yildirim, 2011. "The inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship for Turkey: a dynamic framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 293-309, October.
    6. Mustafa Ozer & Veysel Inal & Mustafa Kirca, 0. "The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(36), pages 21-41, June.
    7. Levent KORAP, 2009. "On the links between inflation, output growth and uncertainty: System-GARCH evidence from the Turkish economy," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 89-110.
    8. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    9. Chih-Chuan Yeh & Kuan-Min Wang & Yu-Bo Suen, 2011. "A quantile framework for analysing the links between inflation uncertainty and inflation dynamics across countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2593-2602.
    10. El in Ayka Alp & Zeynep Biyik, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Dynamics: A Structural Long-run Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 350-356.
    11. Serkan Erkam & Tarkan Cavusoglu, 2008. "Modelling Inflation Uncertainty In Transition Economies:The Case Of Russia And The Former Soviet Republics," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 53(178-179), pages 44-71, July - De.
    12. Korap, Levent & Saatçioğlu, Cem, 2009. "New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. James Payne, 2009. "Official dollarization in El Salvador and the inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1195-1199.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broto Carmen & Ruiz Esther, 2009. "Testing for Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the Components of Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-30, May.
    2. Sintim-Aboagye, Hermann, 2013. "Imf And World Bank Economic Programs On Inflation: Relevance To Nepad," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 9(1-2), January.
    3. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
    4. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "Cross-sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty," Working Papers 0574, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    6. Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
    7. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, May.
    8. Kuang‐Liang Chang & Chi‐Wei He, 2010. "Does The Magnitude Of The Effect Of Inflation Uncertainty On Output Growth Depend On The Level Of Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 126-148, March.
    9. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. WenShwo Fang & Stephen Miller & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2010. "Does a threshold inflation rate exist? Quantile inferences for inflation and its variability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 619-641, December.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    12. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
    13. Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
    14. Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    15. Ran TAO & Zheng-Zheng LI & Xiao-Lin LI & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "A Reexamination of Friedman-Ball’s Hypothesis in Slovakia - Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 41-54, December.
    16. Allan Crawford & Marcel Kasumovich, 1996. "Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?," Staff Working Papers 96-09, Bank of Canada.
    17. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
    18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2003. "Sources of inflation uncertainty and real economic activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 397-409, September.
    19. Fountas, Stilianos, 2001. "The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 77-83, December.
    20. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & Chandana Chakraborty & Serapio Byekwaso, 2012. "Uncertainty of inflation and inflation rate: Does credibility of inflation policy matter?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 95-110, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:7:p:431-435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.