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New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy

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  • Korap, Levent
  • Saatçioğlu, Cem

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy by using contemporaneous Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) estimation methodology. Our findings indicate that inflation leads to inflation uncertainty, and dealing with the information content of this relationship, the conditional variance of inflation reacts more to past positive shocks than to negative innovations of equal size. Causality analysis between inflation and inflation uncertainty reveals that inflation Granger- causes, or in other words, precedes inflation uncertainty, but no clear-cut and significant evidence in the opposite direction can be obtained. Furthermore, generalized impulse response analysis estimated in a vector autoregressive framework yields supportive results to these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Korap, Levent & Saatçioğlu, Cem, 2009. "New time series evidence for the causality relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19246
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19246/1/MPRA_paper_19246.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. HAVVANUR FEYZA ERDEM & Rahmi Yamak, 2014. "The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 246-254.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation ; Inflation uncertainty; Granger causality analysis ; EGARCH modelling ; Impulse response analysis ;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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