IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/acctbr/v34y2004i4p349-377.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting firm value: the superiority of -theory over residual income

Author

Listed:
  • Miles Gietzmann
  • Adam Ostaszewski

Abstract

One of the contributions of residual income theory is that it establishes an equivalence between valuation of a firm based upon a discounted stream of future dividends and valuation based on accounting data in which book value and a discounted stream of future residual incomes take centre stage. However, this equivalence result is non-unique: residual income is only one of many income measures for which equivalence can be shown to hold. Given this non-uniqueness, the traditional residual income equivalence result provides at best a weak defence for the necessity of accounting via residual income. The principal objective of the current paper is to address this central limitation of existing research. We consider how to move on from dependence on equivalence as a weak defence for accounting-based valuation, to a framework in which strict preference between alternative valuation methods is possible. The principal reason why previous research has not considered such issues is because it has lacked an underlying microeconomic theory of managerial choice providing a framework within which to rank alternative valuation rules. From first principles we develop a dynamic optimisation model of managerial choice that provides the benchmark by which we can objectively appraise valuation based upon residual and other income measures. We show that hysteresis (non-uniqueness of valuation) can typically arise for residual income, whereas in contrast for the q-theory based income measure which we derive, valuation is, as expected intuitively, increasing in income (under some mild regularity conditions). Furthermore, we show how our proposed g-theory income measure could be estimated empirically and that our model provides an explanation for some of the apparent anomalies in the Burgstahler-Dichev empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles Gietzmann & Adam Ostaszewski, 2004. "Predicting firm value: the superiority of -theory over residual income," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 349-377.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:acctbr:v:34:y:2004:i:4:p:349-377
    DOI: 10.1080/00014788.2004.9729977
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00014788.2004.9729977
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00014788.2004.9729977?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, GC, 2000. "Accounting information, capital investment decisions, and equity valuation: Theory and empirical implications," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 271-295.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
    3. Wallace J. Hopp & Suresh K. Nair, 1991. "Timing replacement decisions under discontinuous technological change," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 203-220, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jie Ning & Matthew J. Sobel, 2018. "Production and Capacity Management with Internal Financing," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 147-160, February.
    2. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles, 2022. "Heterogeneous gains from countercyclical fiscal policy: new evidence from international industry-level data [Optimal investment with costly reversibility]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 773-804.
    3. Ali K. Ozdagli, 2012. "Financial Leverage, Corporate Investment, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1033-1069.
    4. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    5. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    6. de Angelis, Tiziano & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2014. "A Stochastic Reversible Investment Problem on a Finite-Time Horizon: Free Boundary Analysis," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 477, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    7. Fabrice Collard & Omar Licandro, 2020. "The neoclassical model and the welfare costs of selection," Discussion Papers 2020/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    8. M. Shahe Emran & M. Imam Alam & Forhad Shilpi, 2003. "After the "License Raj": Economic Liberalization and Aggregate Private Investment in India," Development and Comp Systems 0305002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2003.
    9. Shu, Jiaxian & Zhang, Chengsi & Zheng, Ning, 2020. "Financialization and sluggish fixed investment in Chinese real sector firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1106-1116.
    10. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    12. Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2018. "Investment timing, reversibility, and financing constraints," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 771-796.
    13. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    14. Franck Paolucci, 2007. "Des contraintes aux contributions des investissements en R&D aux Etats-Unis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    15. Imtiaz Ahmad & Pascal Alphonse & Michel Levasseur, 2010. "Les Effets De La Croissance Et De L'Endettement Sur Les Multiples De Capitaux Propres : Representation Theorique Et Comparaison Internationale," Post-Print hal-00481584, HAL.
    16. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Rampini, Adriano A. & Viswanathan, S., 2013. "Collateral and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 466-492.
    18. KiHoon Jimmy Hong & Bin Peng & Xiaohui Zhang, 2015. "Capturing the Impact of Unobserved Sector-Wide Shocks on Stock Returns with Panel Data Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(295), pages 495-508, December.
    19. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Hayashi Meets Kiyotaki and Moore: A Theory of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 207-225, April.
    20. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler & Friedrich Sindermann, 2017. "Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 682-711, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:acctbr:v:34:y:2004:i:4:p:349-377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RABR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.