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The Role of CDS Market in the Price Discovery Process of the “PIIGS†Countries Sovereign Credit Risk During the Recent Decade of Monetary Easing

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  • Michele Anelli
  • Michele Patanè

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between the credit default swap (CDS) premia and the government bond spreads (GBS), with regard to the sovereign credit risk. The practical focus is to evaluate whether the CDS market effectively is the leading or the lagging market in the credit risk price discovery process during the last decade of monetary easing. The analysis extends to all “sensitive†countries in the Eurozone, the so-called “PIIGS†countries (excluded Greece) for the interval 2007-2017. JEL classification numbers: G01, G12, G14, G20.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Anelli & Michele Patanè, 2022. "The Role of CDS Market in the Price Discovery Process of the “PIIGS†Countries Sovereign Credit Risk During the Recent Decade of Monetary Easing," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:fininv:v:11:y:2022:i:1:f:11_1_1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michele Anelli & Michele Patanè & Mario Toscano & Alessio Gioia, 2021. "The Evolution of the Lead-lag Markets in the Price Discovery Process of the Sovereign Credit Risk: the Case of Italy," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-7.
    2. Takayasu Ito, 2016. "The behaviour of sovereign CDS and government bond in the Euro zone crisis," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 102-114.
    3. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(33), pages 1-9.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    6. de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
    7. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    8. Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Did the CDS Market Push up Risk Premia for Sovereign Credit?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 147(III), pages 275-302, September.
    9. Portes, Richard & Palladini, Giorgia, 2011. "Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic and Market Indicators in Explaining Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Spread Changes: Evidence from Türkiye," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 145-164, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS spread; Government bond spread; Sovereign credit risk; Cointegration; Vector error correction model; Granger-causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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