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The Evolution of the Lead-lag Markets in the Price Discovery Process of the Sovereign Credit Risk: the Case of Italy

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  • Michele Anelli
  • Michele Patanè
  • Mario Toscano
  • Alessio Gioia

Abstract

Hedging and speculative strategies play a key role in periods of financial market volatility particularly during economic crises. In such contexts, liquidity problems tend to evolve into potential credit risk events that amplifies the volatility of several markets such as the CDS and the government bond markets. The former, however, generally embodies a higher sensitivity to volatility due to the operators’ uncertainty about unstable and countercyclical counterparty risk. The aim of this paper is to analyze the long-lasting dynamic relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and government bond yield spreads (GBS), by focusing particularly on sovereign credit risk, in order to evaluate the lead-lag markets in the price discovery process against the backdrop of a deep financial crisis. The focus of this study concerns the country of Italy, one of the major European countries that suffers from both weak GDP growth and high public debt, which subjects it to volatility and speculation during periods of financial stress. JEL classification numbers: G01, G12, G14, G20.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Anelli & Michele Patanè & Mario Toscano & Alessio Gioia, 2021. "The Evolution of the Lead-lag Markets in the Price Discovery Process of the Sovereign Credit Risk: the Case of Italy," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:11:y:2021:i:2:f:11_2_7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in euro area sovereign debt markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Michele Anelli & Michele Patanè, 2022. "The Role of CDS Market in the Price Discovery Process of the “PIIGS†Countries Sovereign Credit Risk During the Recent Decade of Monetary Easing," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-1.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS spreads; Government bond spreads; Credit risk; Cointegration; Vector error correction model; Granger-causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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