IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spt/apfiba/v7y2017i1f7_1_1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing a Volume Forecasting Model

Author

Listed:
  • Bogdan Batrinca
  • Christian W. Hesse
  • Philip C. Treleaven

Abstract

This study builds a series of models to predict trading volume in European markets using different statistical methods. The analysis considers a number of aspects, such as special events (e.g. MSCI rebalances, futures expiries, or cross-market holidays), day-of-the-week effects, and the volume-price relation asymmetry, in order to perform contextual one-step ahead prediction. We investigate the prediction error for each calendar circumstance to infer a cross-stock event-oriented switching model for volume prediction. The study concludes by proposing a stock-specific out-of-sample metamodel that is fit by selecting an initial stock-specific model yielding the best performance for the most recent observations.JEL classification numbers: C32, C52, C53, G14, G15Keywords: Trading volume, expiry day effect, holiday effect, behavioral finance, European stock market, feature selection

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2017. "Developing a Volume Forecasting Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:1:f:7_1_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scienpress.com/Upload/JAFB%2fVol%207_1_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dubois, M. & Louvet, P., 1996. "The day-of-the-week effect: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1463-1484, November.
    2. Anver Sadath & Bandi Kamaiah, 2011. "Expiration Effects of Stock Futures on the Price and Volume of Underlying Stocks: Evidence from India," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 25-38, July.
    3. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    5. Lakonishok, Josef & Maberly, Edwin, 1990. "The Weekend Effect: Trading Patterns of Individual and Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 231-243, March.
    6. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Jorge Casado & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2013. "The effect of US holidays on the European markets: when the cat’s away…," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(1), pages 111-136, March.
    8. Ying‐Foon Chow & Haynes H. M. Yung & Hua Zhang, 2003. "Expiration day effects: The case of Hong Kong," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 67-86, January.
    9. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "A transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-117, May.
    10. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    11. Cheung, C. Sherman & Kwan, Clarence C. Y., 1992. "A note on the transmission of public informtion across inetrnational stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 831-837, August.
    12. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    13. Hans R. Stoll & Robert E. Whaley, 1997. "Expiration†Day Effects of the All Ordinaries Share Price Index Futures: Empirical Evidence and Alternative Settlement Procedures," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 22(2), pages 139-174, December.
    14. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    15. Hakan Berument & Halil Kiymaz, 2001. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 181-193, June.
    16. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2007. "Disagreement and the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 109-128, Spring.
    17. Vipul, 2005. "Futures and options expiration‐day effects: The Indian evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(11), pages 1045-1065, November.
    18. Chakrabarti, Rajesh & Huang, Wei & Jayaraman, Narayanan & Lee, Jinsoo, 2005. "Price and volume effects of changes in MSCI indices - nature and causes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1237-1264, May.
    19. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    20. Abraham, Abraham & Ikenberry, David L., 1994. "The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 263-277, June.
    21. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-596, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 0. "Developing a Volume Forecasting Model," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 0, pages 1.
    2. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2020. "Expiration day effects on European trading volumes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1603-1638, April.
    3. Bogdan Batrinca & Christian W. Hesse & Philip C. Treleaven, 2018. "European trading volumes on cross‐market holidays," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 675-704, October.
    4. H. Kent Baker & Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "The day‐of‐the‐week effect and conditional volatility: Sensitivity of error distributional assumptions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 280-295, December.
    5. Satish K. Mittal & Sonal Jain, 2009. "Stock Market Behaviour: Evidences from Indian Market," Vision, , vol. 13(3), pages 19-29, July.
    6. Roberto Joaquín Santillán Salgado & Alejandro Fonseca Ramírez & Luis Nelson Romero, 2019. "The "day-of-the-week" effects in the exchange rate of Latin American currencies," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 485-507, Agosto 20.
    7. Chen, Gongmeng & Kwok, Chuck C. Y. & Rui, Oliver M., 2001. "The day-of-the-week regularity in the stock markets of China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-163, April.
    8. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    9. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    10. Mehmet Hasan Eken & Taylan Ozgür Uner, 2010. "Calendar Effects in the Stock Market and a Practice Relatedn to the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market (ISEM)," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 59-95.
    11. Jinghan Cai & Jibao He & Le Xia & Weili Zhai, 2017. "Weekend Effect and Short Sales: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 8-18, 02-2017.
    12. Faruk Bostanci & Saim Kilic, 2010. "The Effects of Free Float Ratios on Market Performance: An Empirical Study on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 1-14.
    13. Meher Shiva Tadepalli & Ravi Kumar Jain, 2018. "Persistence of calendar anomalies: insights and perspectives from literature," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(1/2), pages 18-60, May.
    14. A. R. Zafer Sayar & Onder Kaymaz & Ali Alp, 2010. "The Effect of the Transparency Level of the ISE-Listed Banks on Liquidity," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 12(45), pages 27-58.
    15. Chowdhury, Anup & Uddin, Moshfique & Anderson, Keith, 2022. "Trading behaviour and market sentiment: Firm-level evidence from an emerging Islamic market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:59-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:bor:iserev:v:12:y:2012:i:45:p:27-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Revisiting calendar anomalies in Asian stock markets using a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-141, April.
    20. Mehmet Dicle & John Levendis, 2014. "The day-of-the-week effect revisited: international evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 407-437, July.
    21. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    22. Kazemi, Hossein S. & Zhai, Weili & He, Jibao & Cai, Jinghan, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility, Speculative Short Sellers and Weekend Effect: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 54185, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2013.
    23. Swarn Chatterjee & Amy Hubble, 2016. "Day-Of-The-Week Effect In Us Biotechnology Stocks — Do Policy Changes And Economic Cycles Matter?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-17, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trading volume; expiry day effect; holiday effect; behavioral finance; european stock market; feature selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:1:f:7_1_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scienpress.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.