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Makroökonomische Folgen der demografischen Alterung
[Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Ageing: Simulations Until 2050]

Author

Listed:
  • Thieß Petersen

    (Bertelsmann Stiftung)

  • Martina Lizarazo López

    (Bertelsmann Stiftung)

  • Serguei Kaniovski

    (Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO))

  • Thomas Url

    (Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO))

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Der demografische Wandel ist in den meisten Industrienationen mit einer Alterung und Schrumpfung der Erwerbsbevölkerung verbunden. Daraus ergeben sich erhebliche Konsequenzen für zentrale makroökonomische Größen wie das Bruttoinlandsprodukt, die Arbeitsproduktivität, die Ersparnisse und Investitionen sowie den Leistungsbilanzsaldo. Angesichts des in den nächsten Jahrzehnten zu erwartenden demografischen Wandels müssen vor allem die stark alternden Länder Deutschland und Japan mit einer spürbaren Dämpfung des Wirtschaftswachstums rechnen. Allerdings kann z. B. der technologische Fortschritt in Form von Automatisierung und Digitalisierung diesen Entwicklungen entgegenwirken.

Suggested Citation

  • Thieß Petersen & Martina Lizarazo López & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url, 2020. "Makroökonomische Folgen der demografischen Alterung [Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Ageing: Simulations Until 2050]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(12), pages 958-963, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:100:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1007_s10273-020-2804-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-020-2804-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    2. Vu, Khuong & Hanafizadeh, Payam & Bohlin, Erik, 2020. "ICT as a driver of economic growth: A survey of the literature and directions for future research," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_008 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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